![\"Adrian](\"http:\/\/www.shkoder.net\/images\/fjala\/adrian_civici.jpg\")
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Adrian CIVICI<\/strong>, 17.10.2009<\/em><\/p>\n U b\u00ebn\u00eb disa jav\u00eb q\u00eb monedha evropiane euro po vazhdon t\u00eb forcohet vazhdimisht n\u00eb tregjet financiare n\u00eb raport me monedhat e tjera, sidomos me dollarin amerikan. Edhe n\u00eb tregun shqiptar, euro nuk po rresht s\u00eb forcuari n\u00eb raport me lekun. N\u00eb tregjet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare tashm\u00eb euro k\u00ebmbehet pothuajse me 1.5 dollar\u00eb, duke iu afruar rekordeve historike t\u00eb saj. Vlera m\u00eb e lart\u00eb n\u00eb raport me dollarin, 1.59 USD\/euro e ndodhur n\u00eb korrik t\u00eb vitit 2008 nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb larg. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb periudh\u00eb q\u00eb shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb apo drejtues t\u00eb institucioneve m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme ekonomiko-financiare t\u00eb bot\u00ebs e konsiderojn\u00eb si \u201cfundin e kriz\u00ebs\u201d, apo \u201cfillimin e daljes prej saj\u201d, euro ndodhet n\u00eb piedestalin e monedhave t\u00eb bot\u00ebs.<\/p>\n N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb eufori q\u00eb duket se ka mb\u00ebrthyer tregjet financiare bot\u00ebrore, shk\u00eblqimi i euros duket i padiskutuesh\u00ebm. Por, a \u00ebsht\u00eb totalisht k\u00ebshtu? Dhe, mbi t\u00eb gjitha, \u00e7far\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton dhe pse \u00ebsht\u00eb prodhuar nj\u00eb situat\u00eb e till\u00eb? A shihet forcimi i euros po me kaq optimiz\u00ebm n\u00eb Europ\u00eb dhe dob\u00ebsimi i dollarit po me kaq pesimiz\u00ebm n\u00eb SHBA dhe n\u00eb bot\u00eb? \u00c7far\u00eb analizash e skenar\u00ebsh nd\u00ebrtohen bazuar mbi k\u00ebto tendenca?<\/p>\n Pyetja kryesore q\u00eb shtrohet n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast: a \u00ebsht\u00eb ekonomia e zon\u00ebs euro m\u00eb performantja e bot\u00ebs dhe n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb m\u00eb solide se ekonomia amerikane? Ekspert\u00ebt theksojn\u00eb se fuqia aktuale e euros nuk reflekton detyrimisht nj\u00eb gjendje perfekte t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb evropiane n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb periudh\u00eb \u201cdalje nga kriza\u201d. Sipas tyre, forcimi i euros kundrejt dollarit amerikan shpjegohet m\u00eb shum\u00eb me \u201cstrategjit\u00eb e investimeve n\u00eb tregjet financiare dhe filozofin\u00eb e tyre t\u00eb menaxhimit t\u00eb riskut\u201d, duke i konsideruar monedhat si nj\u00eb kategori t\u00eb caktuar aktivesh financiare, me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin status si aksionet apo l\u00ebnd\u00ebt e para. Monedha evropiane \u00ebsht\u00eb aktualisht m\u00eb e k\u00ebrkuar, sepse prej saj garantohet nj\u00eb fitim m\u00eb i madh se sa nga dollari.<\/p>\n Norma baz\u00eb e interesit e Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Europiane \u00ebsht\u00eb aktualisht 1%, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb norma e interesit e Federal Reserve (Fed) n\u00eb SHBA \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb af\u00ebr zeros. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb, operator\u00ebt financiar\u00eb zhvendosen nga dollari drejt euros, duke ndikuar akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb dob\u00ebsimin e dollarit dhe forcimin e euros. Ky operacion q\u00eb n\u00eb gjuh\u00ebn financiare quhet \u201ccarry trade\u201d \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb teknik\u00eb normale financiare, q\u00eb synon t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga diferencat e t\u00eb ardhurave nga krahasimi i dy aktiveve t\u00eb ndryshme. Ky operacion do t\u00eb rezultonte i rreziksh\u00ebm n\u00ebse Fed n\u00eb SHBA do t\u00eb ngrinte norm\u00ebn baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit, por sipas deklaratave t\u00eb Presidentit t\u00eb saj Ben Bernanke dhe parashikimit t\u00eb ekspert\u00ebve, kjo nuk pritet t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb afatshkurt\u00ebr.<\/p>\n Sipas De Lucia, ekonomist n\u00eb BNP Paribas, \u201cmeqen\u00ebse ulja e norm\u00ebs baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb zon\u00ebn euro duket pak e mundshme, autoriteteve monetare evropiane nuk iu mbetet gj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ve\u00e7se t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb theksojn\u00eb se l\u00ebvizjet e m\u00ebdha n\u00eb tregun financiar dhe at\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit jan\u00eb me pasoja negative\u201d. Presidenti i BQE, J.C.Trichet duket akoma m\u00eb i shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb fenomen kur thekson se, \u201cne po e ndjekim shum\u00eb af\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00eb po ndodh me tregjet… luhatshm\u00ebria e tep\u00ebrt ka pasoja negative p\u00ebr stabilitetin ekonomik\u201d. Sipas analist\u00ebve financiar\u00eb, euro mund ta kaloj\u00eb nivelin 1.50 dollar\u00eb n\u00eb jav\u00ebt n\u00eb vazhdim, p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbritur p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb nivelin 1.48 n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb 2010 dhe arritur n\u00eb 1.40 USD drejt fundit t\u00eb tij.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, dollari amerikan duket se po kalon nj\u00eb nga periudhat m\u00eb negative t\u00eb tij t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre viteve t\u00eb fundit. P\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00eb euroje n\u00eb rivler\u00ebsim t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm dhe \u00e7mimit t\u00eb arit q\u00eb rritet \u00e7do dit\u00eb, dollari duket se po kalon nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb paniku. Me gjith\u00eb q\u00ebndrimet e vendosura t\u00eb padronit t\u00eb Fed, Bernanke apo propozimet inkurajuese t\u00eb sekretarit amerikan t\u00eb thesarit, T.Geithner n\u00eb favor t\u00eb nj\u00eb dollari t\u00eb fort\u00eb, p\u00ebrs\u00ebri dollari po paraqitet p\u00ebrdit\u00eb e m\u00eb i dob\u00ebt n\u00eb tregjet financiare. N\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb jan\u00eb shtuar edhe z\u00ebrat pesimist\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me t\u00eb ardhmen e dollarit dhe rolin e tij n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb, tregtin\u00eb dhe financat bot\u00ebrore. Edhe vet\u00eb Presidenti i Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, R.Zoellick deklaroi disa dit\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb se dit\u00ebt e Amerik\u00ebs si superfuqi e paarritshme ekonomike mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb num\u00ebruara dhe se dollari ka shum\u00eb mund\u00ebsi t\u00eb humbas\u00eb pozicionin e vet, nd\u00ebrsa euro dhe monedha e Kin\u00ebs do t\u00eb marrin pozicion m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb.<\/p>\n K\u00ebsaj tendence i kontribuoi shum\u00eb takimi i p\u00ebrvitsh\u00ebm i Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore dhe FMN-s\u00eb i 6 tetorit 2009 n\u00eb Stamboll, si edhe nj\u00eb artikull i publikuar s\u00eb fundi nga gazeta Indipendent me titullin emblematik \u201cshembja e dollarit\u201d. Sipas t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshmes britanike, Kina, Rusia, Franca, Japonia si dhe nj\u00eb seri vendesh arabe, jan\u00eb duke negociuar p\u00ebr ta z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar dollarin si monedh\u00eb referuese n\u00eb tregtin\u00eb e naft\u00ebs. Q\u00ebllimi i k\u00ebtyre bisedimeve, sipas t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshmes britanike, \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimi i nj\u00eb shporte monedhash t\u00eb tjera, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb k\u00ebtu jenin japonez, jenin kinez, euron, arin dhe nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb Gjirit Persik, t\u00eb cilat do t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbenin si nj\u00eb \u201cmonedh\u00eb unitare\u201d, e cila do t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsonte dollarin amerikan n\u00eb tregtin\u00eb e naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n Por, sa baza reale kan\u00eb parashikime t\u00eb tilla? Natyrisht, q\u00eb prej vitit 1971, kur u vendos braktisja e \u201cMarr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb Bretton Woods\u201d dhe e konvertibiletit t\u00eb dollarit n\u00eb ar, si dhe u adoptua sistemi i k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb lir\u00eb t\u00eb monedhave, dollari nuk ka pasur m\u00eb nj\u00eb pozit\u00eb dominuese n\u00eb tregjet dhe transaksionet financiare nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Megjithat\u00eb, dollari amerikan vazhdon t\u00eb ruaj\u00eb akoma disa funksione thelb\u00ebsore. Ai \u00ebsht\u00eb monedha baz\u00eb referuese p\u00ebr kuotimin n\u00eb burs\u00eb t\u00eb pothuajse t\u00eb gjitha l\u00ebnd\u00ebve t\u00eb para, t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe arit. Ai mbetet monedha etalon p\u00ebr \u00e7mimet e produkteve kryesore t\u00eb teknologjive t\u00eb larta dhe aeronautik\u00ebs. M\u00eb shum\u00eb se 50% e tregtis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore b\u00ebhet n\u00eb dollar\u00eb, q\u00eb vazhdon t\u00eb mbetet mjeti i par\u00eb i pagesave n\u00eb bot\u00eb. S\u00eb fundi, dollari vazhdon t\u00eb luaj\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb funksion tjet\u00ebr mjaft t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm, at\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb qenit monedha kryesore n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn mbahen rezervat valutore t\u00eb bankave qendrore t\u00eb planetit. Aktualisht, sipas FMN-s\u00eb, 62.8% e k\u00ebtyre rezervave n\u00eb shkall\u00eb bot\u00ebrore jan\u00eb n\u00eb dollar\u00eb amerikan\u00eb, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb drejtuesit m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb financave evropiane deklarojn\u00eb se euro nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb konceptuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb luajtur rolin e nj\u00eb monedhe rezerv\u00eb valutore nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, dollari i dob\u00ebt vler\u00ebsohet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb ndryshme brenda dhe jasht\u00eb SHBA. P\u00ebr qeverin\u00eb amerikane, dob\u00ebsia e dollarit shikohet edhe si nj\u00eb nga tre instrumentet kryesor\u00eb q\u00eb ajo po aplikon p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrballuar efektet e kriz\u00ebs financiare dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxitur rritjen ekonomike t\u00eb saj. S\u00eb bashku me politikat fiskale dhe monetare, n\u00ebnvleft\u00ebsimi i vazhduesh\u00ebm i dollarit konsiderohet si faktor q\u00eb po e b\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb p\u00ebrballimin e recesionit ekonomik n\u00eb SHBA. Si pasoj\u00eb e k\u00ebtij fakti, vler\u00ebsohet se rritja e Prodhimit t\u00eb Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto (PBB) amerikan, n\u00eb k\u00ebto dy vite krize ka ardhur kryesisht si pasoj\u00eb e rritjes s\u00eb eksporteve dhe zvog\u00eblimit t\u00eb importeve. Sa m\u00eb tep\u00ebr dob\u00ebsohet dollari, aq m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb e kan\u00eb mallrat e huaja q\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb konkurruese n\u00eb tregun gjigant amerikan, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb eksportet amerikane jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb favorizuara n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb tregjet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, n\u00eb zon\u00ebn euro, mekanizmi vepron n\u00eb sens t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt. Sipas statistikave t\u00eb Eurostat-it, n\u00eb vitin 2008, \u201ckontributi i tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb jashtme n\u00eb rritjen ekonomike\u201d ka rezultuar me nj\u00eb ndikim negativ prej 1% n\u00eb shifr\u00ebn e rritjes ekonomike t\u00eb zon\u00ebs euro. Forca e euros po shihet edhe si nj\u00eb \u201cngarkes\u00eb plus\u201d p\u00ebr vendet e zon\u00ebs euro, q\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb zhvilluara dhe q\u00eb nuk e kan\u00eb t\u00eb varur ekonomin\u00eb dhe t\u00eb ardhurat e tyre nga eksportet. N\u00eb k\u00ebto vende po rriten \u00e7mimet dhe kostot e brendshme, duke ndikuar negativisht n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb t\u00eb tyre. Edhe p\u00ebr Gjermanin\u00eb q\u00eb konsiderohet si \u201ckampione e konkurrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb\u201d n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, euro e fort\u00eb po shkakton probleme duke ia v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsuar eksportet. Shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se euro e fort\u00eb, po aq sa e ndihmojn\u00eb zon\u00ebn euro n\u00eb p\u00ebrballimin e kriz\u00ebs, po aq edhe mund ta frenoj\u00eb n\u00eb daljen e shpejt\u00eb prej saj.<\/p>\n Frenimi i r\u00ebnies s\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb dollarit dhe stabiliteti i tij duket se tashm\u00eb i intereson gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebs, dhe n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb vendeve aziatike dhe vet\u00eb Europ\u00ebs. Presidenti i BQE, Trichet, nuk l\u00eb rast pa shprehur q\u00ebndrimin e tij n\u00eb favor t\u00eb politikave t\u00eb nj\u00eb dollari sa m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb, si dhe t\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb nj\u00eb riekuilibrimi n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet e k\u00ebmbimit nd\u00ebrmjet euros dhe dollarit. Po k\u00ebshtu, po kaq t\u00eb interesuara p\u00ebr stabilitetin e dollarit duken dhe vendet aziatike, t\u00eb cilat nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb nuk d\u00ebshirojn\u00eb t\u00eb humbin vler\u00ebn e rezervave t\u00eb tyre valutore, t\u00eb cilat aktualisht dominohen nga dollar\u00ebt dhe nga ana tjet\u00ebr i tremben nj\u00eb rivler\u00ebsimi t\u00eb monedhave t\u00eb tyre lokale, i cili do t\u2019ia ulte ndjesh\u00ebm mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e eksporteve dhe shkall\u00ebn e konkurrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb produkteve t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n Dit\u00ebt e fundit, bankat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha qendrore t\u00eb Tailand\u00ebs, Tajvanit, Hong-Kongut, Filipineve, Kores\u00eb e Indonezis\u00eb kan\u00eb bler\u00eb me miliarda dollar\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje q\u00eb t\u00eb shmangin zhvleft\u00ebsimin e m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb tij. Edhe vendet arabe q\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb ta shesin me dollar\u00eb naft\u00ebn e tyre jan\u00eb po kaq t\u00eb interesuara q\u00eb t\u00eb frenojn\u00eb r\u00ebnien e m\u00ebtejshme t\u00eb dollarit. T\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto t\u00eb \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb konkluzionin se tendenca e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb monedh\u00ebs s\u00eb gjelb\u00ebr do filloj\u00eb t\u00eb frenohet dhe shum\u00eb shpejt dollari do t\u00eb stabilizohet n\u00eb vlerat e tij.<\/p>\n T\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto tendenca jan\u00eb nj\u00eb baromet\u00ebr p\u00ebr t\u2019u orientuar dhe kuptuar si duhet ecurin\u00eb e monedhave kryesore t\u00eb bot\u00ebs, dhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuad\u00ebr, edhe raportet e monedhave lokale me to. Tashm\u00eb, edhe tek ne, si nj\u00eb ekonomi e hapur, k\u00ebto tendenca reflektohen direkt ose indirekt n\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjen e k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb lekut me euron dhe dollarin dhe na kushtojn\u00eb apo favorizojn\u00eb jo pak n\u00eb gjith\u00eb transaksionet tona t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshme. Megjith\u00ebse p\u00ebrqindja e k\u00ebmbimit nd\u00ebrmjet monedhave \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb fenomen mjaft kompleks e n\u00ebn influenc\u00ebn e faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm, sidomos ata t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm, p\u00ebrs\u00ebri, nuk duhet t\u00eb minimizojm\u00eb apo aq m\u00eb keq ta neglizhojm\u00eb mesazhin q\u00eb na vjen nga ecuria e monedhave kryesore referenc\u00eb n\u00eb tregjet financiare nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. P\u00ebrtej mesazhit monetar, ecuria e k\u00ebtyre monedhave shpjegon edhe shum\u00eb aspekte t\u00eb ecuris\u00eb s\u00eb pritshme t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore dhe politikave ekonomiko-financiare q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrin vendet e ndryshme apo institucionet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare si FMN, Banka Bot\u00ebrore, OBT etj., politika q\u00eb na afektojn\u00eb direkt dhe indirekt n\u00eb gjith\u00eb vendimmarrjen ton\u00eb ekonomike e financiare.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Adrian CIVICI<\/strong>, 17.10.2009<\/em> <\/p>\n U b\u00ebn\u00eb disa jav\u00eb q\u00eb monedha evropiane euro po vazhdon t\u00eb forcohet vazhdimisht n\u00eb tregjet financiare n\u00eb raport me monedhat e tjera, sidomos me dollarin amerikan. Edhe n\u00eb tregun shqiptar, euro nuk po rresht s\u00eb forcuari n\u00eb raport me lekun. N\u00eb tregjet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare tashm\u00eb euro k\u00ebmbehet pothuajse me 1.5 dollar\u00eb, duke iu afruar rekordeve historike t\u00eb saj. Vlera m\u00eb e lart\u00eb n\u00eb raport me dollarin, 1.59 USD\/euro e ndodhur n\u00eb korrik t\u00eb vitit 2008 nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb larg. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb periudh\u00eb q\u00eb shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb apo drejtues t\u00eb institucioneve m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme ekonomiko-financiare t\u00eb bot\u00ebs e konsiderojn\u00eb si \u201cfundin e kriz\u00ebs\u201d, apo \u201cfillimin e daljes prej saj\u201d, euro ndodhet n\u00eb piedestalin e<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n <\/p>\n