{"id":7829,"date":"2011-04-24T22:19:28","date_gmt":"2011-04-24T21:19:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fjala.shkoder.net\/?p=7829"},"modified":"2011-04-24T22:19:28","modified_gmt":"2011-04-24T21:19:28","slug":"nje-pirg-me-genjeshtra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/nje-pirg-me-genjeshtra\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00ebn sip\u00ebrfaqen e sondazhit p\u00ebr Tiran\u00ebn"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Botuar ne respublica.al<\/em>)
\n\"\"
\nEduard Zaloshnja<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nga nj\u00eb sondazh telefonik p\u00ebr gar\u00ebn e Bashkis\u00eb s\u00eb Tiran\u00ebs, t\u00eb cilin e publikova para ca dit\u00ebsh, projektova probabilisht se Edi Rama do t\u00eb kishte fituar n\u00eb 17 prill rreth 52.6% t\u00eb votave. Duke analizuar tendecat e votimit n\u00eb qytetin e Tiran\u00ebs nga viti 2005 e k\u00ebtej, dhe bazuar n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjet e t\u00eb anketuarve t\u00eb sondazhit, kam bindjen se, N\u00cb KUSHTE NORMALE, rezultati i Ram\u00ebs n\u00eb 8 maj, me gjasa t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, do te jet\u00eb diku n\u00eb intervalin 52%-53%. Jo m\u00eb kot p\u00ebrdora shkronja t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr fraz\u00ebn \u201cn\u00eb kushte normale\u201d, sepse ajo p\u00ebrb\u00ebn themelin e parashikimit tim. N\u00eb qoft\u00eb se ky themel shembet, ngrehina e parashikimit tim, e nd\u00ebrtuar me shum\u00eb mund, do t\u00eb shk\u00ebrmoqej.<\/p>\n

Por \u00e7far\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb q\u00eb themeli i k\u00ebtij parashikimi t\u00eb shembet? S\u00eb pari, mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb di\u00e7ka dramatike, q\u00eb nuk ka sondazh ta parashikoj\u00eb. P\u00ebr shembull, mund t\u00eb publikohet nj\u00eb video-p\u00ebrgjim p\u00ebr nj\u00ebrin nga dy kandidat\u00ebt, m\u00eb skandaloz se ai i Ilir Met\u00ebs. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast t\u00eb skajsh\u00ebm hipotetik, pjes\u00ebmarrja e votuesve t\u00eb nj\u00ebr\u00ebs apo tjetr\u00ebs pal\u00eb do t\u00eb binte ndjesh\u00ebm dhe rezultati do t\u00eb dilte me siguri jasht\u00eb intervalit t\u00eb parashikuar 52%-53%.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb di\u00e7ka jo kaq dramatike deri n\u00eb 8 maj, q\u00eb, pa u ndjer\u00eb, mund ta ndryshoj\u00eb balanc\u00ebn e votave. Dhe kjo di\u00e7ka duket se po zhvillohet tashm\u00eb n\u00ebn sip\u00ebrfaqe. Sms-t\u00eb q\u00eb po marrin qytetar\u00ebt e Tiran\u00ebs nga Lulzim Basha, me urime t\u00eb personalizuara p\u00ebr dit\u00eblindje, anketimet me em\u00ebr e me mbiem\u00ebr q\u00eb po b\u00ebhen n\u00eb celular nga shtabi i Bash\u00ebs, si dhe regjistrimi i numrit t\u00eb kart\u00ebs s\u00eb identitetit dhe celularit t\u00eb punonj\u00ebsve t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs shtet\u00ebrore, po diskutohen gjer\u00ebsisht nga qytetar\u00ebt e thjesht\u00eb. Dhe ky diskutim mund t\u00eb ngjall\u00eb frik\u00ebn tek votuesit e opozit\u00ebs se, n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb ose nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, vota e tyre do t\u00eb identifikohet e, si rrjedhoj\u00eb, ata do t\u00eb ken\u00eb pasoja.<\/p>\n

Pavar\u00ebsisht se gjasat jan\u00eb q\u00eb, n\u00eb fakt, shumica d\u00ebrrmuese e votuesve t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb t\u00eb mos ken\u00eb pasoja prej pjes\u00ebmarrjes n\u00eb zgjedhje, vet\u00eb ekzistenca e frik\u00ebs mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb q\u00eb disa nga ata q\u00eb n\u00eb sondazhin tim deklaruan se do t\u00eb merrnin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb votim, t\u00eb mos votojn\u00eb fare n\u00eb 8 maj. T\u00eb gjith\u00eb intervistuesit m\u00eb komentuan se frika p\u00ebr t\u2019u shprehur ishte dramatikisht e prekshme tek shumica e votuesve t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, si tek ata q\u00eb mezi e deklaronin vot\u00ebn, edhe tek ata q\u00eb nuk e deklaronin, por kuptoheshin nga pyetjet e t\u00ebrthorta se ishin opozitar\u00eb.<\/p>\n

E nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb nuk ndodhi me qytetin e Kor\u00e7\u00ebs. Gjat\u00eb anketimit telefonik q\u00eb iu b\u00eb 2000 qytetar\u00ebve kor\u00e7ar\u00eb, n\u00eb kuad\u00ebr t\u00eb nj\u00eb sondazhi privat q\u00eb zhvillova para 2 jav\u00ebsh, niveli i mosdeklarimit t\u00eb vot\u00ebs dhe i mospjesmarrjes n\u00eb anketim prej frik\u00ebs ishte ndjesh\u00ebm m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt se sa n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, intervistuesit gjykojn\u00eb se ishte shum\u00eb m\u00eb leht\u00eb t\u00eb merrje p\u00ebrgjigje nga deklaruesit opozitar\u00eb t\u00eb vot\u00ebs n\u00eb Kor\u00e7\u00eb se sa n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb. Kjo shpjegohet ndoshta me faktin se trysnia e mazhoranc\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se sa n\u00eb Kor\u00e7\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Analiza e mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb shmangies s\u00eb rezultatit t\u00eb 8 majit nga parashikimi im do mund t\u00eb vazhdonte ndoshta me faqe t\u00eb t\u00ebra. Po mendoj se \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb me vler\u00eb q\u00eb ta var k\u00ebtu qyrkun e analistit, p\u00ebr t\u00eb veshur at\u00eb t\u00eb opinionistit. Pra, t\u00eb mos merrem m\u00eb me pytjen se \u00e7\u2019mund t\u00eb ngjas\u00eb, por me pyetjen e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme se \u00e7\u2019duhet t\u00eb ngjas\u00eb.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb pakt\u00ebn q\u00eb nga viti 2005, zgjedhjet n\u00eb qytetin e Tiran\u00ebs kan\u00eb qen\u00eb praktikisht t\u00eb lira e t\u00eb ndershme. Diku, nj\u00eb grusht votuesish t\u00eb nj\u00ebr\u00ebs apo tjetr\u00ebs pal\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb penguar p\u00ebr t\u00eb votuar (si p.sh. disa votues t\u00eb djatht\u00eb n\u00eb Kombinat, n\u00eb vitin 2007), apo mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb num\u00ebruar \u201ckeq\u201d disa vota t\u00eb partive t\u00eb vogla (si\u00e7 pretendoi LSI-ja dhe LZHK-ja n\u00eb vitet 2005 dhe 2009), por nivelin aktual t\u00eb frik\u00ebs mes votuesve tiranas t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs nuk e kam ndjer\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb (kam zhvilluar sondazhe n\u00eb qytetin e Tiran\u00ebs edhe para 2009-\u00ebs). Dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb e pafalshme q\u00eb sot, 20 vjet pas r\u00ebnies s\u00eb diktatur\u00ebs komuniste, tiranasit t\u00eb ken\u00eb frik\u00eb se mos identifikohen nga qeveria si votues t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb frik\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb e kam par\u00eb vet\u00ebm te votuesit rural\u00eb t\u00eb Beratit, n\u00eb mars 1991, kur kandidova p\u00ebr deputet t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb atje. Atyre u thuhej nga komunist\u00ebt se n\u00eb qendrat e votimit do t\u00eb kishte kamera t\u00eb fshehta, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet t\u00eb cilave do t\u00eb identifikohej vota e secilit. E megjithat\u00eb, 33% e zgjedh\u00ebsve t\u00eb zon\u00ebs ma dhan\u00eb vot\u00ebn! Nd\u00ebrsa sot, n\u00eb mes t\u00eb Tiran\u00ebs, asnj\u00eb votues nuk duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb frik\u00eb t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb te kutia e votimit. Sepse, po u c\u00ebnua edhe liria e vot\u00ebs, fjala zgjedhje e humbet kuptimin – ajo pastaj duhet z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar me fjal\u00ebn zgjidhje!<\/p>\n

Q\u00eb frika e votuesve opozitar\u00eb t\u00eb fashitet, drejtuesit e opozit\u00ebs dhe arbitrat nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb zgjedhjeve duhet t\u2019i k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb me forc\u00eb qeveris\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb jap\u00eb garanci publike se asnjeri nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb pasoja nga pjes\u00ebmarrja n\u00eb votim. Gjithashtu, opozita duhet t\u2019u premtoj\u00eb po me forc\u00eb votuesve t\u00eb saj se do t\u2019i mbroj\u00eb me \u00e7do mjet nga ndonj\u00eb raprezalje e mundshme e qeveris\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Dreqi e mori, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb kryeqytet, duhet t\u00eb realizohen zgjedhje t\u00eb lira e t\u00eb ndershme!<\/p>\n

Eduard Zaloshnja<\/strong>, PhD
\nResearch Scientist<\/em>
\nPacific Institute for Research and Evaluation
\n11720 Beltsville Dr. Suite 900
\nBeltsville, MD 20705
\nPhone: 301-755-2734
\nFax: 301-755-2799<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Botuar ne respublica.al) Eduard Zaloshnja Nga nj\u00eb sondazh telefonik p\u00ebr gar\u00ebn e Bashkis\u00eb s\u00eb Tiran\u00ebs, t\u00eb cilin e publikova para ca dit\u00ebsh, projektova probabilisht se Edi Rama do t\u00eb kishte fituar n\u00eb 17 prill rreth 52.6% t\u00eb votave. Duke analizuar tendecat e votimit n\u00eb qytetin e Tiran\u00ebs nga viti 2005 e k\u00ebtej, dhe bazuar n\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nN\u00ebn sip\u00ebrfaqen e sondazhit p\u00ebr Tiran\u00ebn - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/nje-pirg-me-genjeshtra\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"N\u00ebn sip\u00ebrfaqen e sondazhit p\u00ebr Tiran\u00ebn - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Botuar ne respublica.al) Eduard Zaloshnja Nga nj\u00eb sondazh telefonik p\u00ebr gar\u00ebn e Bashkis\u00eb s\u00eb Tiran\u00ebs, t\u00eb cilin e publikova para ca dit\u00ebsh, projektova probabilisht se Edi Rama do t\u00eb kishte fituar n\u00eb 17 prill rreth 52.6% t\u00eb votave. 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