{"id":7764,"date":"2011-04-18T08:02:59","date_gmt":"2011-04-18T07:02:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fjala.shkoder.net\/?p=7764"},"modified":"2011-04-18T08:02:59","modified_gmt":"2011-04-18T07:02:59","slug":"njoftim-publik-sondazh-per-zgjedhjet-e-8-majit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/njoftim-publik-sondazh-per-zgjedhjet-e-8-majit\/","title":{"rendered":"Njoftim Publik – sondazh p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e 8 majit"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"
\nEduard Zaloshnja<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nga nj\u00eb sondazh q\u00eb zhvillova gjat\u00eb jav\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit, m\u00eb rezulton q\u00eb, n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se zgjedhjet do t\u00eb ishin mbajtur n\u00eb 17 prill, n\u00eb kushte normale, Edi Rama do t\u00eb kishte dal\u00eb fitues me 52.6% t\u00eb votave. Me siguri 95%, rezultati real do t\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb brenda marzhit t\u00eb gabimit statistikor prej +\/- 2.5 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje. Th\u00ebn\u00eb ndryshe, Edi Rama, me siguri 97.5%, do t\u00eb kishte marr\u00eb mbi gjysm\u00ebn e votave. Sa m\u00eb sip\u00ebr, NUK DO T\u00cb THOT\u00cb SE I NJ\u00cbJTI REZULTAT DO T\u00cb ARRIHET DOMOSDOSHM\u00cbRISHT EDHE N\u00cb 8 MAJ <\/strong>(disa zgjedh\u00ebs q\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb votonin n\u00eb 17 prill mund t\u00eb vendosin t\u00eb votojn\u00eb n\u00eb 8 maj dhe anasjelltas, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb disa zgjedh\u00ebs mund t\u00eb nd\u00ebrrojn\u00eb kahun e votimit deri n\u00eb 8 maj).<\/p>\n

Metodologjia e p\u00ebrdorur p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur n\u00eb rezultatin e m\u00ebsip\u00ebrm<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrzgjedhja e kampionit statistikor u b\u00eb me rast\u00ebsi t\u00eb plot\u00eb nga nj\u00eb univers prej rreth 60,000 numrash Telekomi t\u00eb qytetit t\u00eb Tiran\u00ebs. 2450 tiranas u kontaktuan me telefon nga anketues t\u00eb besuar dhe t\u00eb kontrolluar nga un\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb realizuar nj\u00eb kampion prej 2000 votuesish. Sipas gjykimit t\u00eb anketuesve, 374 qytetar\u00eb t\u00eb kontaktuar nuk mor\u00ebn pjes\u00eb n\u00eb anketim, sepse nuk kishin koh\u00eb apo p\u00ebrtonin t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjeshin dhe 76 t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt q\u00eb refuzuan, kishin frik\u00eb t\u00eb merrnin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb anketim*.<\/p>\n

Kampioni rezultoi i balancuar territorialisht, n\u00eb gjini, grupmosha, dhe shp\u00ebrndarje t\u00eb vot\u00ebs s\u00eb 2009-\u00ebs sipas koalicioneve. Vet\u00ebm grupi i votuesve t\u00eb rinj (18-19 vje\u00e7) ishte i n\u00ebnp\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuar n\u00eb kampion (43 nga 60 q\u00eb duheshin), por nj\u00eb studim i \u00c7ek\u00ebs (2010)** konkludon se 74% e votuesve t\u00eb rinj (18-19 vje\u00e7) n\u00eb Bashkin\u00eb e Tiran\u00ebs kan\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb ndjekin preferencat politike t\u00eb prind\u00ebrve t\u00eb tyre. Pjesa q\u00eb nuk ndjek prind\u00ebrit, me gjasa t\u00eb forta, \u00ebsht\u00eb e ndar\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb pothuaj t\u00eb barabart\u00eb mes mazhoranc\u00ebs dhe opozit\u00ebs (si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb i ndar\u00eb vet\u00eb elektorati tiranas).<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb projektuar probabilisht kahun e votimit t\u00eb t\u00eb pavendosurve dhe t\u00eb atyre q\u00eb nuk e deklaruan vot\u00ebn (t\u00eb evidentuar m\u00eb posht\u00eb), u p\u00ebrdor nj\u00eb model regresioni logjistik, bazuar n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjet q\u00eb dhan\u00eb deklaruesit e vot\u00ebs n\u00eb lidhje me Piramid\u00ebn, Sheshin Sk\u00ebnderbe, profesionalizmin e punonj\u00ebsve t\u00eb Bashkis\u00eb, opinionin p\u00ebr secilin kandidat, dhe votimin n\u00eb 2009-\u00ebn e n\u00eb 2007-\u00ebn. P\u00ebr t\u00eb projektuar vot\u00ebn e zonave me mbulim t\u00eb rrall\u00eb nga Albtelekomi (si Komuna e Parisit, Kodra e Priftit, Shkoza dhe Bregu i Lumit), u ekstrapoluan probabilisht rezultatet e m\u00ebparshme t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre zonave me rezultatet e kampionit p\u00ebr votimet e shkuara dhe at\u00eb t\u00eb pritsh\u00ebm aktual.<\/p>\n

Brenda territorit t\u00eb mbuluar dendur nga Albtelekomi, mund t\u00eb ekzistojn\u00eb xhepa t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl t\u00eb pambuluar me telefon fiks. P\u00ebr k\u00ebta xhepa u abstragua se votuesit e tyre ndjekin tendencat e n\u00ebnkampionit statistikor t\u00eb minibashkive t\u00eb mbuluara mir\u00eb nga Albtelekomi, meqen\u00ebse shp\u00ebrndarja e votave t\u00eb k\u00ebtij t\u00eb fundit p\u00ebr 2007-\u00ebn e 2009-\u00ebn p\u00ebrputhet me votimin faktik. Sidoqoft\u00eb, p\u00ebr ta probabilizuar abstragimin, marzhit fillestar t\u00eb gabimit statistikor iu shtua apriori +\/- 0.1 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje. N\u00eb total, llogaritjet probabilitare t\u00eb m\u00ebsip\u00ebrme e rrit\u00ebn marzhin fillestar t\u00eb gabimit statistikor me +\/- 0.5 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebr t\u00eb anketuarit q\u00eb do t\u00eb kishin marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb votim n\u00eb 17 prill, p\u00ebrgjigjet rreth votimit t\u00eb tyre ishin si m\u00eb posht\u00eb:<\/p>\n

Edi Rama 43.9%; Lulzim Basha 42.6%; Hysni Milloshi 0.3%; T\u00eb pavendosur 6.4%; Nuk e deklaruan vot\u00ebn 6.8%*<\/p>\n

*Niveli relativisht i lart\u00eb i mospjes\u00ebmarrjes n\u00eb sondazh nga frika dhe i mosdeklarimit t\u00eb vot\u00ebs, l\u00eb t\u00eb kuptohet se kurba e dend\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb probabilitetit p\u00ebr shp\u00ebrndarjen e gabimit statistikor mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb asimetrike. M\u00eb shkoqur, mund t\u00eb thuhet se gjasat ishin m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha q\u00eb Rama t\u00eb kishte marr\u00eb n\u00eb 17 prill mbi 52.6% t\u00eb votave, se sa m\u00eb pak se 52.6%<\/em>.<\/p>\n

**\u00c7eka, Blendi. Aplikimi i Teorive Socializuese e Zhvillimore n\u00eb Sjelljen e Votuesve t\u00eb Par\u00eb n\u00eb Bashkin\u00eb e Tiran\u00ebs. Referat n\u00eb Konferenc\u00ebn Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb Departamentit t\u00eb Psikologjis\u00eb, Universiteti i Tiran\u00ebs, Dhjetor 2010<\/em>.<\/p>\n

—————-
\nNjoftim shtese rreth sondazhit tim mbi votimin per Bashkine e Tiranes ne 17 prill:<\/p>\n

Nga analiza e modelit probabilitar qe perdora per te projektuar voten e taranasve, ne qofte se zgjedhjet do te ishin mbajtur ne 17 prill, me rezulton:<\/p>\n

1 – Me probabilitet 97.5%, Rama do te merrte JO ME SHUME se 55.0% te votave
\n2 – Me probabilitet 83.5% Rama do te merrte JO ME SHUME se 53.9% te votave
\n3 – Me probabilitet 83.5%, Rama do te merrte TE PAKTEN 51.2% te votave
\n4 – Me probabilitet 97.5%, Rama do te merrte TE PAKTEN 50.1% te votave
\n5 – Me probabilitet 98%, Rama do te merrte TE PAKTEN nje vote me shume se Basha
\n6 – Me probabilitet 99%, Rama do te merrte TE PAKTEN 45.2% te votave
\n7 – Me probabilitet 100%, Rama do te merrte TE PAKTEN 1 vote (voten e vet)<\/p>\n

—
\nEduard Zaloshnja<\/strong>, PhD
\nResearch Scientist<\/em>
\nPacific Institute for Research and Evaluation
\n11720 Beltsville Dr. Suite 900
\nBeltsville, MD 20705
\nPhone: 301-755-2734
\nFax: 301-755-2799<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eduard Zaloshnja Nga nj\u00eb sondazh q\u00eb zhvillova gjat\u00eb jav\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit, m\u00eb rezulton q\u00eb, n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se zgjedhjet do t\u00eb ishin mbajtur n\u00eb 17 prill, n\u00eb kushte normale, Edi Rama do t\u00eb kishte dal\u00eb fitues me 52.6% t\u00eb votave. Me siguri 95%, rezultati real do t\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb brenda marzhit t\u00eb gabimit statistikor prej +\/- […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-7764","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-artikuj"},"yoast_head":"\nNjoftim Publik - sondazh p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e 8 majit - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/njoftim-publik-sondazh-per-zgjedhjet-e-8-majit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Njoftim Publik - sondazh p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e 8 majit - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Eduard Zaloshnja Nga nj\u00eb sondazh q\u00eb zhvillova gjat\u00eb jav\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit, m\u00eb rezulton q\u00eb, n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se zgjedhjet do t\u00eb ishin mbajtur n\u00eb 17 prill, n\u00eb kushte normale, Edi Rama do t\u00eb kishte dal\u00eb fitues me 52.6% t\u00eb votave. 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