{"id":6327,"date":"2011-02-10T22:11:29","date_gmt":"2011-02-10T21:11:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fjala.shkoder.net\/?p=6327"},"modified":"2011-02-10T22:11:29","modified_gmt":"2011-02-10T21:11:29","slug":"efekti-elektoral-i-aksionit-opozitar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/efekti-elektoral-i-aksionit-opozitar\/","title":{"rendered":"Efekti elektoral i aksionit opozitar"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"
\nEduard Zaloshnja<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb dhom\u00ebn e fsheht\u00ebSynimi kryesor i aksionit politik t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs gjat\u00eb 18 muajve t\u00eb fundit duket se ka qen\u00eb bindja e partner\u00ebve tan\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb q\u00eb Berisha i vodhi zgjedhjet dhe q\u00eb zgjidhja m\u00eb e mir\u00eb p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb jan\u00eb zgjedhjet e parakohshme parlamentare pa Berish\u00ebn kryeminist\u00ebr. Pavar\u00ebsisht se partner\u00ebt nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb mund ta pranojn\u00eb privatisht q\u00eb opozita mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me vjedhjen e zgjedhjeve t\u00eb kaluara (Berisha nuk pranoi t\u00eb b\u00ebnte transparenc\u00ebn e tyre sipas rezolut\u00ebs s\u00eb Parlamentit Europian), publikisht i mbeten q\u00ebndrimit t\u00eb tyre fillestar se zgjedhjet ishin “p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht t\u00eb lira e t\u00eb ndershme” dhe se zgjedhjet e radh\u00ebs \u2013 lokalet e 2011-s dhe parlamentaret e 2013-\u00ebs \u2013 duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mira. Kjo, sepse ata shohin tek Berisha nj\u00eb kok\u00ebfort\u00ebsi t\u00eb rrezikshme p\u00ebr stabilitetin n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri e m\u00eb gjer\u00eb, kur vihet n\u00eb diskutim largimi i tij i parakohsh\u00ebm nga pushteti. Pra, duket se ata mendojnse se aksioni i opozit\u00ebs shqiptare mund t\u00eb d\u00ebmtoj\u00eb strategjin\u00eb e tyre afatgjat\u00eb p\u00ebr qet\u00ebsimin gradual t\u00eb Ballkanit.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebto kushte, nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsimi i partner\u00ebve tan\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb synon qet\u00ebsimin e situat\u00ebs aktuale duke i m\u00ebshuar nevoj\u00ebs q\u00eb ngjarjet e 21 janarit dhe aferat korruptive t\u00eb pushtetar\u00ebve t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb hetohen dhe gjykohen nga drejt\u00ebsia, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb politika t\u00eb fokusohet n\u00eb zhvillimin e zgjedhjeve t\u00eb 8 majit, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat garantojn\u00eb se do t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb fuqimisht q\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb t\u00eb lira e t\u00eb ndershme. N\u00eb kushtet kur nuk e kan\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahjen e partner\u00ebve tan\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb p\u00ebr zgjedhje t\u00eb parakohshme, dhe kur velave t\u00eb tyre nuk u fryn nj\u00eb er\u00eb e fort\u00eb si ajo e revolt\u00ebs s\u00eb gjer\u00eb popullore t\u00eb Vlor\u00ebs s\u00eb 1997-\u00ebs, udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit e opozit\u00ebs mund t\u00eb detyrohen t\u00eb pranojn\u00eb formul\u00ebn e ofruar nga nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb. Pra, t\u00eb pranojn\u00eb t\u00eb futen n\u00eb zgjedhjet e 8 majit me Berish\u00ebn kryeminist\u00ebr, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb drejt\u00ebsia b\u00ebn pun\u00ebn e vet me dosjen e 21 janarit dhe me akuzat p\u00ebr korrupsion.<\/p>\n

Por aksioni politik i opozit\u00ebs, pavar\u00ebsisht se ka sh\u00ebnjestruar kryesisht partneret tan\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb, ka patur pa dyshim efekt edhe te elektorati shqiptar. N\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri nuk zhvillohen sondazhe periodike opinioni (si\u00e7 ndodh n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn d\u00ebrrmuese t\u00eb vendeve demokratike), por po t\u00eb zhvilloheshin, mendja ta do se do t\u00eb rezultonte q\u00eb nj\u00eb shumic\u00eb e ndjeshme e elektoratit \u00ebsht\u00eb bindur tashm\u00eb se Berisha i ka vjedhur zgjedhjet e 2009-\u00ebs. Por a mund t\u00eb konsiderohet kjo nj\u00eb fitore politike e opozit\u00ebs? Nj\u00eb betej\u00eb politike mund t\u00eb quhet e fituar nga nj\u00ebra pal\u00eb vet\u00ebm kur ka si rezultante nj\u00eb ndryshim t\u00eb raporteve elektorale n\u00eb favor t\u00eb saj. Dhe nj\u00eb aksiom\u00eb e gjith\u00ebpranuar rreth gar\u00ebs politike n\u00eb demokraci na tregon se votuesit e l\u00ebkundur jan\u00eb faktori kryesor p\u00ebr ndryshimin e raporteve elektorale n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend.<\/p>\n

Por a funksionon kjo aksiom\u00eb edhe n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri? Ose ndryshe mund t\u00eb pyetet n\u00ebse segmenti i elektoratit t\u00eb l\u00ebkundur \u00ebsht\u00eb aq i madh sa t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb rezultatin e zgjedhjeve t\u00eb rradh\u00ebs. Para se t’i p\u00ebrgjigjemi k\u00ebsaj pyetje, le t\u00eb analizojm\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebrjen e k\u00ebtij segmenti. Elektorati i l\u00ebkundur p\u00ebrb\u00ebhet nga dy n\u00ebn-grupe. N\u00eb n\u00ebn-grupin e par\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihen votuesit q\u00eb e nd\u00ebrrojn\u00eb krahun e votimit nga nj\u00ebra zgjedhje n\u00eb tjetr\u00ebn – pra, jan\u00eb votues t\u00eb ndryshuesh\u00ebm. Nd\u00ebrsa n\u00ebn-grupi i dyt\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebhet nga votuesit q\u00eb anojn\u00eb nga nj\u00ebri krah, por q\u00eb her\u00eb marrin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb zgjedhje e her\u00eb jo – pra, jan\u00eb votues t\u00eb vak\u00ebt.<\/p>\n

Nga nj\u00eb studim statistikor q\u00eb kreva para zgjedhjeve t\u00eb 2009-\u00ebs, m\u00eb rezultoi se 38% ishin votues t\u00eb vendosur p\u00ebr nj\u00ebrin apo tjetrin krah; 29% e votuesve t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm ishin n\u00eb emigracion n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb; 21% e votuesve nuk merrnin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb zgjedhje; 8% e votuesve her\u00eb kishin marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb zgjedhje e her\u00eb jo – pra, ishin votues t\u00eb vak\u00ebt; dhe 4% ishin votues q\u00eb e kishin nd\u00ebrruar krahun e votimit – pra, ishin votues t\u00eb ndryshuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

Ekzistenca e votuesve t\u00eb l\u00ebkundur del n\u00eb pah edhe nga krahasimi i zgjedhjeve t\u00eb vitit 2005 n\u00eb zon\u00ebn 31 t\u00eb Tiran\u00ebs dhe zgjedhjeve t\u00eb pjesshme n\u00eb po t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn zon\u00eb n\u00eb shtator 2007. K\u00ebshtu, mbi 18600 votues t\u00eb zon\u00ebs 31 votuan n\u00eb zgjedhjet e 3 korrikut 2005, por vet\u00ebm 12850 shkuan n\u00eb kutit\u00eb e votimit n\u00eb shtator 2007.<\/p>\n

Gjithashtu, n\u00eb zgjedhjet p\u00ebr Bashkin\u00eb e Tiran\u00ebs n\u00eb 2007-\u00ebn, mor\u00ebn pjes\u00eb rreth 73 mij\u00eb votues m\u00eb pak se n\u00eb vitin 2009. Dhe ky ndryshim nuk mund t\u00eb shpjegohet me rritjen e popullsis\u00eb; sipas INSTAT-it, numri i votuesve q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb brenda kufijve t\u00eb kryeqytetit, \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur vet\u00ebm me 5% n\u00eb vit n\u00eb 5-vje\u00e7arin e fundit. Ky ndryshim nuk mund t\u00eb shpiegohet as me manipulime t\u00eb mundshme elektorale. Ndryshimi dramatik I votave – i cili ishte pothuaj i barabart\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb dy krah\u00ebt – mund t\u00eb shpjegohet kryesisht me faktin se secila pal\u00eb ka nga nj\u00eb segment t\u00eb konsideruesh\u00ebm votuesish t\u00eb vak\u00ebt, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt marrin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb zgjedhjet parlamentare, por jo n\u00eb ato lokale.<\/p>\n

Duke u kthyer tek mesazhi i PS-s\u00eb rreth vjedhjes s\u00eb votave nga Berisha, le t\u00eb supozojm\u00eb se ai ka ngjitur tek t\u00eb gjith\u00eb votuesit e l\u00ebkundur n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri – bazuar n\u00eb shifrat e m\u00ebsip\u00ebrme, b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr rreth 360,000 votues t\u00eb till\u00eb. Pas k\u00ebtij supozimi, pyetja shtrohet n\u00ebse bindja q\u00eb Berisha i ka vjedhur zgjedhjet e 2009-\u00ebs do t’i motivonte ata t\u00eb shkonin t\u00eb votonin p\u00ebr PS-n\u00eb n\u00eb 8 maj. Votuesit e vak\u00ebt t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb dhe aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb saj, pavarsisht se mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb bindur se PS-ja ka t\u00eb drejt\u00eb rreth vjedhjes s\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb shkuara, nuk ta do mendja se mund t\u00eb ndikohen shum\u00eb nga \u00e7far\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb apo mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb Berisha me votat e kund\u00ebrshtarit – vota e tyre mund t\u00eb ndikohet shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr nga \u00e7ka b\u00ebr\u00eb apo mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb Berisha p\u00ebr ta dhe familjet e tyre.<\/p>\n

Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, votuesit e ndryshuesh\u00ebm, si dhe votuesit e vak\u00ebt t\u00eb majt\u00eb, mund t\u00eb ndikohen nga \u00e7far\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb apo mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb Berisha me votat e kund\u00ebrshtarit \u2013 por jo n\u00eb drejtimin q\u00eb d\u00ebshirojn\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit e opozit\u00ebs. P\u00ebrderisa k\u00ebta votues i ka bindur PS-ja q\u00eb, pavar\u00ebsisht se mund t’ia japin votat asaj apo aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb vet, Berisha i vjedh ato, pak arsye kan\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb mundimin t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb kutit\u00eb e votimit dit\u00ebn e zgjedhjeve. Ndryshe do t\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb puna n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i konsideruesh\u00ebm komisioner\u00ebsh t\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb 2009-\u00ebs do t\u00eb kishin p\u00ebrfunduar prapa dyerve t\u00eb burgut…<\/p>\n

Kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb e re p\u00ebr opozit\u00ebn – n\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb ngjashme ajo u ndodh edhe para zgjedhjeve t\u00eb 2009-\u00ebs, kur eksponent\u00ebt e saj kryesor\u00eb ngjall\u00ebn p\u00ebr disa muaj rresht dyshime t\u00eb besueshme se qeveria po p\u00ebrgatiste manipulime masive t\u00eb zgjedhjeve n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet listave t\u00eb votuesve dhe kartave t\u00eb identitetit. Por muajin e fundit para zgjedhjeve, duke e kuptuar grack\u00ebn elektorale ku po e futnin veten, ata filluan t\u00eb jepnin garanci publike se nuk do t\u00eb lejonin q\u00eb votat t\u00eb vidheshin. Se sa e suksesshme ishte ajo manov\u00ebr e muajit t\u00eb fundit, nuk u mat dot nga sondazhet q\u00eb u zhvilluan para zgjedhjeve. Por fakti q\u00eb e gjith\u00eb e majta s\u00eb bashku mori rreth 100 mij\u00eb vota m\u00eb shum\u00eb se n\u00eb 2007-\u00ebn tregon se nj\u00eb far\u00eb suksesi u arrit.<\/p>\n

A mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e susksesshme nj\u00eb manov\u00ebr e ngjashme para zgjedhjeve t\u00eb 2011-\u00ebs? N\u00eb qytete ndoshta po. N\u00eb dy zgjedhjet e fundit, kontestimet p\u00ebr votat urbane kan\u00eb qen\u00eb pothuaj t\u00eb pap\u00ebrfillshme. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, si dhe p\u00ebr faktin se partner\u00ebt tan\u00eb do t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm q\u00eb zgjedhjet t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb lira e t\u00eb ndershme, votuesit e l\u00ebkundur n\u00eb qytete mund t\u00eb mos ken\u00eb frik\u00eb se votat e tyre do t\u00eb vidhen. Pjes\u00ebmarrja dhe krahu i votimit t\u00eb tyre mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohen kryesisht nga sa do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb aft\u00eb kandidat\u00ebt e secil\u00ebs pal\u00eb t’ua fitojn\u00eb vot\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Ndryshe q\u00ebndron puna n\u00eb zonat rurale, ku dhe kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrqendruara kontestimet n\u00eb dy zgjedhjet e fundit. Atje votuesit e ndryshuesh\u00ebm, si dhe votuesit e vak\u00ebt t\u00eb majt\u00eb – gjithsej rreth 80 mij\u00eb – mund t\u00eb mos binden se zgjedhjet do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb lira e t\u00eb ndershme, pavar\u00ebsisht garancive t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs dhe partner\u00ebve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb p\u00ebr mosc\u00ebnimin e vot\u00ebs s\u00eb tyre. P\u00ebr rrjedhoj\u00eb, shum\u00eb syresh mund t\u00eb mos e marrin mundimin t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb votim, duke p\u00ebrcaktuar k\u00ebshtu humbjen e opozit\u00ebs n\u00eb ato komuna ku pesha elektorale e secil\u00ebs pal\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuaj e barabart\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb tablon\u00eb e madhe t\u00eb gj\u00ebrave, opozita mund t\u00eb dal\u00eb m\u00eb e fituar politikisht n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se p\u00ebrs\u00ebrit fitoren e bashkive n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn d\u00ebrrmuese t\u00eb qyteteve, pavarsisht humbjes n\u00eb disa komuna p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb efektit t\u00eb sip\u00ebranalizuar. Nj\u00eb fitore e till\u00eb, e pasuar edhe nga ndonj\u00eb d\u00ebnim i mundsh\u00ebm i pushtetar\u00ebve t\u00eb lart\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtjet q\u00eb po hetohen, mund t’i hap\u00eb asaj rrug\u00ebn p\u00ebr nj\u00eb fitore n\u00eb zgjedhjet parlamentare t\u00eb 2013-\u00ebs…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eduard Zaloshnja N\u00eb dhom\u00ebn e fsheht\u00ebSynimi kryesor i aksionit politik t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs gjat\u00eb 18 muajve t\u00eb fundit duket se ka qen\u00eb bindja e partner\u00ebve tan\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb q\u00eb Berisha i vodhi zgjedhjet dhe q\u00eb zgjidhja m\u00eb e mir\u00eb p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb jan\u00eb zgjedhjet e parakohshme parlamentare pa Berish\u00ebn kryeminist\u00ebr. Pavar\u00ebsisht se partner\u00ebt nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb mund ta pranojn\u00eb privatisht […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-6327","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-artikuj"},"yoast_head":"\nEfekti elektoral i aksionit opozitar - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/efekti-elektoral-i-aksionit-opozitar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Efekti elektoral i aksionit opozitar - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Eduard Zaloshnja N\u00eb dhom\u00ebn e fsheht\u00ebSynimi kryesor i aksionit politik t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs gjat\u00eb 18 muajve t\u00eb fundit duket se ka qen\u00eb bindja e partner\u00ebve tan\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb q\u00eb Berisha i vodhi zgjedhjet dhe q\u00eb zgjidhja m\u00eb e mir\u00eb p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb jan\u00eb zgjedhjet e parakohshme parlamentare pa Berish\u00ebn kryeminist\u00ebr. 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