![\"Adrian](\"http:\/\/www.shkoder.net\/images\/fjala\/adrian_civici.jpg\")
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ADRIAN CIVICI<\/strong>, 17.05.2010<\/em><\/p>\n Evropa dhe monedha e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt evropiane, euro, duket se po ndodhen p\u00ebrpara nj\u00eb prove t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb. Ndoshta m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtira q\u00eb nga e koha e krijimit t\u00eb tyre. Kriza greke, megjith\u00ebse p\u00ebr nga p\u00ebrmasat e saj mund t\u00eb konsiderohet si nj\u00eb problem minor n\u00eb raport me fuqin\u00eb ekonomike e financiare t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs, duket se d\u00ebmin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh e b\u00ebri duke hapur \u201ckutin\u00eb e Pandor\u00ebs\u201d dhe nxjerr\u00eb prej saj shqet\u00ebsime e sfida t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme. Debatet dhe p\u00ebrpjekjet duket se po grupohen n\u00eb dy problematika t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. S\u00eb pari, eficenca e projektit evropian dhe domosdoshm\u00ebria e reformimit thelb\u00ebsor t\u00eb tij dhe s\u00eb dyti, roli dhe mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e euros p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrballuar sfidat e krizave t\u00eb ndryshme financiare e monetare t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb zon\u00ebs euro.<\/p>\n M\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjith\u00e7ka duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb euro, ajo q\u00eb po shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb \u201ckalin e betej\u00ebs\u201d p\u00ebr t\u00eb d\u00ebshmuar vlerat dhe performanc\u00ebn e eurozon\u00ebs apo vet\u00eb BE-s\u00eb. Mbas tri masave t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb tilla si: aprovimi i paket\u00ebs s\u00eb ndihm\u00ebs prej 110 miliard\u00eb eurosh p\u00ebr Greqin\u00eb, krijimi i nj\u00eb fondi special evropian prej 750 miliard\u00eb eurosh p\u00ebr p\u00ebrballimin e krizave financiare nga BE dhe vendimi i Spanj\u00ebs dhe Portugalis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019i zvog\u00ebluar q\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit me 6 miliard\u00eb euro shpenzimet e tyre publike, u mendua se situata e euros dhe vet\u00eb eurozon\u00ebs do t\u00eb shkonte drejt normalizimit dhe dyshimet mbi \u201cjet\u00ebgjat\u00ebsin\u00eb dhe kapacitetet e euros si monedh\u00eb e fort\u00eb\u201d do t\u00eb zhdukeshin. Por, mesa duket, situata rezulton m\u00eb e komplikuar se kaq.<\/p>\n Zhvleft\u00ebsimi i euros n\u00eb raport me dollarin amerikan, monedh\u00ebn e saj konkurrente, po vazhdon akoma m\u00eb tej edhe k\u00ebto dit\u00ebt e fundit, duke u bashk\u00ebshoq\u00ebruar nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht edhe me nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsim t\u00eb saj n\u00eb raport me sterlin\u00ebn angleze dhe jenin japonez. Tendenca e art\u00eb pozitive e euros e 8-9 viteve t\u00eb fundit q\u00eb nga krijimi i saj, kur u nis n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozicion pothuajse t\u00eb barabart\u00eb me dollarin amerikan p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur n\u00eb vlerat 1 euro = 1.56 USD n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2008, duket se po frenohet.<\/p>\n Euro po k\u00ebmbehet tashm\u00eb me 1.24 USD, me nj\u00eb trend zbrit\u00ebs q\u00eb shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb financiar\u00eb e parashikojn\u00eb s\u00eb af\u00ebrmi n\u00eb nivelet 1 euro = 1.18 USD, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb disa prej tyre avancojn\u00eb n\u00eb analizat e tyre deri n\u00eb nj\u00eb paritet t\u00eb plot\u00eb 1 euro = 1 USD. Shum\u00eb i shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr situat\u00ebn e euros duket dhe Presidenti i BQE, Trichet, i cili deklaron se tregjet financiare gjenden \u201cn\u00eb situat\u00ebn e tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb q\u00eb prej Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore\u201d… \u201cne kemi p\u00ebrjetuar e po jetojm\u00eb koh\u00eb me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb dramatike\u201d, vazhdon Trichet.<\/p>\n Paniku i bursave evropiane i jav\u00ebs s\u00eb kaluar tregoi se \u201ctregjet nuk funksionojn\u00eb normalisht… ai ishte pothuajse i ngjash\u00ebm me momentin e falimentimit t\u00eb bank\u00ebs Lehman Brothers n\u00eb shtator t\u00eb vitit 2008\u201d, falimentim q\u00eb sh\u00ebnoi fillimin zyrtar t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs financiare nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Paniku i bursave dhe r\u00ebnia e besimit tek euro dhe monedhat u reflektua menj\u00ebher\u00eb tek rritja spektakolare e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb arit. Aktualisht nj\u00eb onc ar kushton 1250 USD, \u00e7mim ky i pa imagjinuar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit, aq m\u00eb tep\u00ebr q\u00eb parashikimet e \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb 2000 USD \u00e7mimin e nj\u00eb onc-i ar n\u00eb vitin 2014.<\/p>\n Shkaqet dhe faktor\u00ebt e nj\u00eb \u201ckundra-tendence\u201d t\u00eb till\u00eb p\u00ebr euron jan\u00eb t\u00eb shumta. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb ekonomiko-financiare shum\u00eb t\u00eb brisht\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare askush nuk duket i sigurt se kriza financiare \u00ebsht\u00eb tejkaluar dhe gjithkush dyshon e trembet se shum\u00eb \u201cxhepa negativ\u00eb t\u00eb saj, deri tani t\u00eb fshehura apo neutralizuara, mund t\u00eb hapen\u201d, duke krijuar problematika t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr t\u2019u menaxhuar. N\u00eb syrin e k\u00ebtij cikloni duket se jan\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb monedhat, euro, dollari, sterlina, yen-i, etj., t\u00eb cilat po b\u00ebhen barometri m\u00eb i sakt\u00eb i sh\u00ebndetit t\u00eb \u00e7do ekonomie apo sistemi financiar, lakmuesi i \u00e7do politike, mase apo dhe q\u00ebndrimi t\u00eb qeverive p\u00ebrkat\u00ebse, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb k\u00ebtu edhe vet\u00eb BE-n\u00eb. Edhe nga pik\u00ebpamja historike, emri monedh\u00eb vjen nga fjala latine \u201cmonere\u201d, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb \u201clajm\u00ebrim\u201d, \u201csinjal\u201d, \u201cb\u00ebj kujdes\u201d.<\/p>\n Mjaftoi vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb lajm i gazet\u00ebs spanjolle \u201cEl Pais\u201d sipas s\u00eb cil\u00ebs, gjat\u00eb takimit t\u00eb EcoFin t\u00eb premten e kaluar n\u00eb Bruksel, \u201cPresidenti i Franc\u00ebs, Nikolas Sarkozi, kishte k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar Gjermanin\u00eb se, n\u00ebse ajo nuk pranonte planin p\u00ebr shp\u00ebtimin financiar t\u00eb Greqis\u00eb, Franca mund t\u00eb dilte nga zona dhe monedha euro\u201d, q\u00eb euro t\u00eb tronditej menj\u00ebher\u00eb dhe t\u00eb humbte pik\u00eb n\u00eb bursat dhe tregjet financiare n\u00eb raport me disa monedha t\u00eb tjera. Por, p\u00ebrtej k\u00ebtij lajmi, q\u00eb natyrisht u p\u00ebrg\u00ebnjeshtrua shpejt nga Kryeministri spanjoll, Zapatero, Evropa d\u00ebshmoi se \u00ebsht\u00eb akoma larg \u201cnj\u00eb qeverisjeje t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ekonomike e financiare unike\u201d, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb rruga drejt nj\u00eb objektivi t\u00eb till\u00eb duket e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb dhe me shum\u00eb t\u00eb panjohura.<\/p>\n Paul Volcker, k\u00ebshilltar ekonomik i Presidentit Obama, duke analizuar q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb zon\u00ebs euro n\u00ebnvizon se \u201ceuro ka r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb kurth, i cili ishte i duksh\u00ebm q\u00eb n\u00eb krijimin e saj: munges\u00ebn e nj\u00eb politike buxhetore t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt evropiane. Evropa duhet t\u00eb vendos\u00eb shpejt n\u00ebse do apo jo t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e integruar se deri tani. Fati i euros do t\u00eb varet pik\u00ebrisht nga p\u00ebrgjigja q\u00eb do t\u00eb jepet\u201d. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb betej\u00eb ka nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb s\u00eb fundi dhe ekonomisti i njohur Paola-Schiopa, i konsideruar si nj\u00eb nga baballar\u00ebt themelues t\u00eb euros dhe an\u00ebtar i Bordit t\u00eb BQE, i cili thekson se \u201c\u00ebsht\u00eb e gabuar t\u00eb besosh se euro dhe sovraniteti i plot\u00eb komb\u00ebtar i vendeve an\u00ebtare mund t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb bashk\u00eb me nj\u00ebri-tjetrin.<\/p>\n Vet\u00ebm transferimi i sovranitetit ekonomik e financiar t\u00eb vendeve an\u00ebtare drejt nj\u00eb qeverisje unike do t\u2019i jap\u00eb euros vler\u00ebn dhe q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb\u201d. N\u00eb horizont duket se e vetmja zgjidhje p\u00ebr Evrop\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb kalimi drejt \u201cnj\u00eb federalizmi buxhetor\u201d. N\u00eb vijim t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre pik\u00ebpyetjeve, presidenti i Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Evropiane, Trichet, ka hedhur iden\u00eb e nj\u00eb \u201cpolicie t\u00eb euros\u201d, detyra kryesore e s\u00eb cil\u00ebs do t\u00eb jet\u00eb survejimi i situatave buxhetore, fiskale e monetare t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb eurozon\u00ebs, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb parashikohen sa m\u00eb shpejt q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur kriza t\u00eb ngjashme me kriz\u00ebn greke.<\/p>\n Faktor i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i \u201cdyshimeve\u201d mbi q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e euros \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe situata ekonomike n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, perspektivat afatshkurtra e afatmesme t\u00eb saj si dhe politikat e pritshme rigoroze buxhetore, q\u00eb shum\u00eb vende evropiane pritet t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrin n\u00eb vitet n\u00eb vazhdim. Duke u hedhur nj\u00eb v\u00ebshtrim politikave shtr\u00ebnguese buxhetore t\u00eb lajm\u00ebruara nga qeverit\u00eb evropiane, duket qart\u00eb se ato jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb totale. Spanja ka si objektiv reduktimin e deficitit t\u00eb saj buxhetor nga 11,2% q\u00eb e ka aktualisht n\u00eb 3% n\u00eb 2013; Greqia, nga 13.6% aktualisht n\u00eb 3% n\u00eb 2014; Irlanda, nga 14.3% n\u00eb 3% n\u00eb 2013; Portugalia, nga 9.4% n\u00eb 4.6% n\u00eb 2011; Rumania, nga 7.2% n\u00eb 6.8% n\u00eb 2010; Italia, nga 5.3% aktualisht n\u00eb 3% n\u00eb 3% n\u00eb 2012, etj.<\/p>\n N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rit\u00ebm zbrit\u00ebs parashikohet t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb edhe shifrat e borxhit publik, t\u00eb cilat nga nivele 80-110% n\u00eb raport me PBB q\u00eb jan\u00eb sot, synohet t\u00eb zbresin n\u00ebn nivelin e 60% n\u00eb 3-4 vitet n\u00eb vazhdim. Investitor\u00ebt dhe tregjet financiare nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare i tremben faktit se \u201cmasat e rigorozitetit buxhetor q\u00eb kan\u00eb si objektiv themelor reduktimin e borxhit publik, uljen e deficiteve buxhetore, shkurtimin e shpenzimeve publike, etj., mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb negativisht n\u00eb nivelin e rritjes ekonomike dhe papun\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb\u201d. Analist\u00ebt financiar\u00eb t\u00eb \u201cCapital Economics\u201d shkojn\u00eb deri atje sa t\u00eb parashikojn\u00eb se \u201cshqet\u00ebsimet mbi efektin e k\u00ebtyre masave drastike, si dhe dob\u00ebsit\u00eb e rritjes ekonomike n\u00eb raport me SHBA, mund t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb q\u00eb deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti euro t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb nivelet 1 euro = 1,10 USD, p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkuar drejt nj\u00eb pariteti t\u00eb plot\u00eb me dollarin amerikan n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2011\u201d.<\/p>\n Sipas FMN-s\u00eb dhe shum\u00eb organizmave e institucioneve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb specializuara, treguesit e rritjes ekonomike n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb pritet t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt se ata n\u00eb SHBA, duke b\u00ebr\u00eb q\u00eb ekonomia amerikane t\u00eb rikthehet m\u00eb shpejt n\u00eb nivelet e saj m\u00eb t\u00eb mira t\u00eb performanc\u00ebs, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb Evropa pritet t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet akoma me disa vite e vendime t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira. Raporti i fundit i FMN-s\u00eb, \u201cMonitor Fiscal\u201d, i publikuar disa dit\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00ebnvizonte se \u201ctashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb evidente se ekziston nj\u00eb lidhje e qart\u00eb shkak-pasoj\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjet borxhit dhe rritjes ekonomike\u201d. \u00cbsht\u00eb m\u00eb se urgjente, p\u00ebr \u00e7do vend q\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb masa drastike p\u00ebr uljen e deficiteve buxhetore dhe borxheve t\u00eb brendshme, n\u00ebse do t\u00eb mos p\u00ebrballet me faktor\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb frenues t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb tij ekonomike.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr ta zbutur sado pak efektet e frik\u00ebs s\u00eb pamund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb shum\u00eb shteteve t\u00eb eurozon\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb paguar borxhet e tyre n\u00eb koh\u00eb dhe presionin q\u00eb kjo frik\u00eb po ushtron mbi euron, BQE duket se e \u201ckaloi p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb rubikonin\u201d n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e saj monetare kur deklaroi se \u201cishte gati t\u00eb blinte ajo vet\u00eb borxhin sovran t\u00eb shteteve t\u00eb ndryshme\u201d. Ekonomist\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm e krahasuan k\u00ebt\u00eb vendim me \u201cnj\u00eb bomb\u00eb atomike\u201d, \u201csi nj\u00eb mas\u00eb e jasht\u00ebzakonshme n\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme\u201d. Politika monetare e eurozon\u00ebs po k\u00ebrkon me \u00e7do kusht e \u00e7mim t\u00eb eliminoj\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e ndodhjes p\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00eb shock-u financiar si ai i Bank\u00ebs Amerikane Lehmon Brothers t\u00eb shtatorit 2008.<\/p>\n Por n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst krize e frike p\u00ebr fatin e euros, ka edhe mjaft ekspert\u00eb q\u00eb e shikojn\u00eb got\u00ebn \u201cgjysm\u00eb plot\u201d. Sipas ekonomistit t\u00eb njohur D.Cohen, \u201cnga r\u00ebnia e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb euros, ne duhet m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb g\u00ebzohemi se sa t\u00eb m\u00ebrzitemi\u201d…\u201dp\u00ebrpara planit t\u00eb shp\u00ebtimit financiar ishte e qart\u00eb se r\u00ebnia e euros shprehte riskun sistemik q\u00eb ekzistonte n\u00eb zon\u00ebn euro, por aktualisht rreziku i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsia n\u00eb rritjen ekonomike\u201d.<\/p>\n N\u00eb k\u00ebto kushte, zhvleft\u00ebsimi i monedh\u00ebs s\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt duhet konsideruar si nj\u00eb lajm i mir\u00eb, sepse si pasoj\u00eb e k\u00ebtij zhvleft\u00ebsimi, ne mund t\u00eb rrisim eksportet dhe t\u00eb stimulojm\u00eb pun\u00ebsimin, investimet dhe rritjen ekonomike. Pra, konkludon D.Cohen, \u201ceuro e dob\u00ebt \u00ebsht\u00eb jo vet\u00ebm e keqe, por edhe e dobishme\u201d. Pik\u00ebpyetja m\u00eb e madhe mbetet \u201caft\u00ebsia dhe mund\u00ebsia e Evrop\u00ebs q\u00eb t\u00eb thelloj\u00eb akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb integrimin e saj, q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb realisht nj\u00eb fuqi ekonomike e financiare unike\u201d. Duket se koha e sovraniteteve nacionale n\u00eb politikat ekonomike dhe buxhetore po merr fund. Situata aktuale e euros e shpreh m\u00eb s\u00eb miri k\u00ebt\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjetme, t\u00eb turbullt e me mjaft t\u00eb panjohura.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ADRIAN CIVICI, 17.05.2010 Evropa dhe monedha e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt evropiane, euro, duket se po ndodhen p\u00ebrpara nj\u00eb prove t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb. Ndoshta m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtira q\u00eb nga e koha e krijimit t\u00eb tyre. Kriza greke, megjith\u00ebse p\u00ebr nga p\u00ebrmasat e saj mund t\u00eb konsiderohet si nj\u00eb problem minor n\u00eb raport me fuqin\u00eb ekonomike e financiare t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2692","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-artikuj"},"yoast_head":"\n