{"id":12963,"date":"2013-07-14T23:38:35","date_gmt":"2013-07-14T22:38:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fjala.info\/?p=3768"},"modified":"2013-07-14T23:38:35","modified_gmt":"2013-07-14T22:38:35","slug":"shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/","title":{"rendered":"Shila dhe Karibda e Ram\u00ebs"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\" Nga Eduard Zaloshnja<\/strong>, 14 korrik 2013<\/em><\/p>\n

N\u00eb mendimin ekonomik post-marksist, kan\u00eb konkuruar dy shkolla t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta rreth rolit t\u00eb shtetit n\u00eb zbutjen e cikleve t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb tregut \u2013 ajo fiskale dhe ajo monetare. Nobelisti John Maynard Keynes ishte themeluesi i shkoll\u00ebs s\u00eb mendimit ekonomik q\u00eb i sheh politikat fiskale si instrumentin kryesor t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjes s\u00eb shtetit n\u00eb rastet kur rritja ekonomike frenohet dhe hapja e vendeve t\u00eb reja t\u00eb pun\u00ebs v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsohet. Nd\u00ebrsa nobelisti Milton Friedman ishte themeluesi i shkoll\u00ebs s\u00eb mendimit ekonomik q\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rol ia njeh politikave monetare. Deri m\u00eb sot, n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, qeverit\u00eb e majta n\u00eb bot\u00ebn demokratike kan\u00eb p\u00ebrqafuar shkoll\u00ebn kejnsiane, nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb djathtat kan\u00eb p\u00ebrqafuar at\u00eb fridmaniane.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebshtu p\u00ebr shembull, Presidenti Ruzvelt, nj\u00eb nga dishepujt e zjarrt\u00eb t\u00eb shkoll\u00ebs kejnsiane, rriti ndjesh\u00ebm borxhin publik t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb dhe i p\u00ebrdori fondet e grumbulluara p\u00ebr investime n\u00eb infrastruktur\u00eb, duke ulur k\u00ebshtu papun\u00ebsin\u00eb e lart\u00eb t\u00eb shkaktuar nga depresioni i fort\u00eb ekonomik i viteve 1929-33.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrsa presidenti Regan, nj\u00eb dishepull i zjarrt\u00eb i shkoll\u00ebs fridmaniane, em\u00ebroi n\u00eb krye t\u00eb bank\u00ebs qendrore nj\u00eb guvernator q\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyri fort n\u00eb ofert\u00ebn e paras\u00eb n\u00eb qarkullim, duke ulur inflacionin vjetor nga 13% n\u00eb 4% brenda nj\u00eb kat\u00ebrvje\u00e7ari. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Regani uli taksat ndaj individ\u00ebve dhe bizneseve, duke pak\u00ebsuar k\u00ebshtu mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e buxhetit federal p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrhyrje fiskale n\u00eb ekonomi dhe duke ia l\u00ebn\u00eb bank\u00ebs qendrore shkopin e dirigjentit ekonomik.<\/p>\n

Pas k\u00ebsaj hyrjeje t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr rreth shkollave te mendimit ekonomik mbi rolin e shtetit n\u00eb zbutjen e cikleve t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb tregut, le t\u00eb vijm\u00eb tek ekonomia aktuale shqiptare.<\/p>\n

Pas dy muajsh Rama do t\u00eb jet\u00eb kryeminist\u00ebr i vendit. Por, pavar\u00ebsisht n\u00ebse Rama do t\u00eb jet\u00eb partizan i shkoll\u00ebs kejnsiane apo asaj fridmaniane, atij do t\u2019i duhet t\u00eb lundroj\u00eb mes nj\u00eb Shile dhe Karibde ekonomike. Dhe ja p\u00ebrse.<\/p>\n

Bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb faqes s\u00eb internetit t\u00eb CIA-s p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb dhe t\u00eb raportit t\u00eb The Economist Intelligence Unit, mund t\u00eb llogaritet se n\u00eb vendin ton\u00eb konsumohen brenda nj\u00eb viti mallra e sh\u00ebrbime t\u00eb ofruara nga privat\u00ebt dhe shteti me kosto rreth 11.5 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb (shteti dhe organizata bamir\u00ebsie private ofrojn\u00eb disa sh\u00ebrbime e mallra falas, por sidoqoft\u00eb edhe ato e kan\u00eb koston e tyre). N\u00eb vler\u00ebn e mallrave\/sh\u00ebrbimeve q\u00eb konsumohen n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, \u00ebsht\u00eb e trup\u00ebzuar vlera prej 3.4 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb e mallrave\/sh\u00ebrbimeve q\u00eb importohen, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb trup\u00ebzohen edhe rreth 1.2 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb form\u00ebn e konsumimit t\u00eb makinerive dhe mjeteve t\u00eb importuara. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, p\u00ebr \u00e7do 100 dollar\u00eb mallra e sh\u00ebrbime t\u00eb konsumuara n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, rreth 40 dollar\u00eb shkojn\u00eb jasht\u00eb vendit p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbuluar vler\u00ebn e importeve t\u00eb trup\u00ebzuara n\u00eb to.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb paragrafin e m\u00ebsip\u00ebrm m\u00eb t\u00eb kuptuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr lexuesin, le t\u00eb sjellim disa shembuj.<\/p>\n

Sa her\u00eb blejm\u00eb nj\u00eb buk\u00eb n\u00eb dyqanin pran\u00eb sht\u00ebpis\u00eb, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysma e 800-lek\u00ebshit q\u00eb paguajm\u00eb shkon p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbuluar importimin e grurit dhe konsumimin e makinerive, automjeteve, karburantit e materialeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb importuara q\u00eb nevojiten p\u00ebr prodhimin dhe transportimin e miellit dhe, m\u00eb pas, t\u00eb buk\u00ebs. Nd\u00ebrsa kur blejm\u00eb domate t\u00eb prodhuara n\u00eb sera diku n\u00eb Myzeqe, rreth 40% e \u00e7mimit mbulon konsumimin e impianteve, automjeteve, karburantit, e materialeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb importuara q\u00eb nevojiten p\u00ebr prodhimin dhe transportimin e tyre. P\u00ebr t\u00eb mos folur pastaj p\u00ebr cigaret apo mallrat elektronike, n\u00eb \u00e7mimin e t\u00eb cilave importi \u00ebsht\u00eb trup\u00ebzuar n\u00eb nivelin mbi 75%.<\/p>\n

Por si ia kemi dal\u00eb ne q\u00eb t\u00eb d\u00ebrgojm\u00eb jasht\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb 40 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do 100 dollar\u00eb mallra dhe sh\u00ebrbime t\u00eb konsumuara n\u00eb vend?<\/p>\n

S\u00eb pari<\/em>, ky deficit \u00ebsht\u00eb mbuluar n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet eksporteve t\u00eb mallrave e sh\u00ebrbimeve shqiptare, t\u00eb cilat kapin shifr\u00ebn e 1.6 miliard dollar\u00ebve n\u00eb vit. S\u00eb dyti<\/em>, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet d\u00ebrgesave t\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve, t\u00eb cilat, koh\u00ebt e fundit, mezi arrijn\u00eb nivelin e rreth 1 miliard dollar\u00ebve n\u00eb vit. S\u00eb treti<\/em>, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet ndihmave dhe kredive t\u00eb huaja q\u00eb merr shteti dhe privat\u00ebt shqiptar\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin 0.8 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb vit. S\u00eb kat\u00ebrti<\/em>, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet investimeve t\u00eb huaja direkte, q\u00eb kapin shifr\u00ebn e 0.4 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebve n\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n

Po t\u2019i mbledhim s\u00eb bashku k\u00ebto burime, b\u00ebjn\u00eb rreth 3.8 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Pra, mbeten edhe 0.8 miliard\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbuluar 4.6 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebt e importit t\u00eb trup\u00ebzuar n\u00eb vler\u00ebn e mallrave dhe sh\u00ebrbimeve q\u00eb konsumohen \u00e7do vit n\u00eb vend. Dhe ku gjenden k\u00ebto 0.8 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb? Duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb parat\u00eb e trafiqeve ilegale dhe parat\u00eb e pista q\u00eb futen n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri\u2026<\/p>\n

Duke par\u00eb list\u00ebn e burimeve t\u00eb financimit t\u00eb deficitit ton\u00eb treg\u00ebtar, mund t\u00eb thuhet se dy syresh kan\u00eb patur prirje zbrit\u00ebse koh\u00ebt e fundit. S\u00eb pari<\/em>, d\u00ebrgesat e emigrant\u00ebve jan\u00eb vazhdimisht n\u00eb ulje, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs ekonomike q\u00eb ka mb\u00ebrthyer vendet ku punojn\u00eb shumica d\u00ebrrmuese e tyre, si dhe p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb shk\u00ebputjes graduale t\u00eb lidhjeve me vendin e origjin\u00ebs. S\u00eb dyti<\/em>, parat\u00eb e trafiqeve ilegale dhe parat\u00eb e pista nga jasht\u00eb jan\u00eb vazhdimisht n\u00eb ulje, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb trysnis\u00eb q\u00eb ushtrojn\u00eb fqinj\u00ebt tan\u00eb europian\u00eb ndaj qeveris\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019i luftuar ato.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebto kushte, Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb i duhet t\u00eb adoptoj\u00eb nj\u00eb politik\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb stimulonte z\u00ebvend\u00ebsimin e mallrave t\u00eb importit me prodhime vendase, si dhe rritjen e eksporteve. Kjo gj\u00eb, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 ndikimit n\u00eb zbutjen e deficitit treg\u00ebtar, do t\u00eb ndikonte edhe n\u00eb hapjen e vendeve t\u00eb reja t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, n\u00eb kushtet kur nd\u00ebrtimi dhe industrit\u00eb e lidhura me t\u00eb kan\u00eb pushuar s\u00eb qeni lokomotiva e ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare.<\/p>\n

Por stimulimi i prodhimeve vendase (p\u00ebr konsum t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm dhe eksport) k\u00ebrkon ose nd\u00ebrhyrje fiskale, ose nd\u00ebrhyrje monetare, ose t\u00eb dyja.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjet fiskale p\u00ebrfshihen subvencionet, investimet e drejtp\u00ebrdrejta t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb n\u00eb infrastruktur\u00eb dhe\/ose mjete prodhuese, leht\u00ebsirat tatimore, tarifat doganore, etj. Por qeveria shqiptare ka disa pengesa financiare dhe institucionale p\u00ebr t\u2019i realizuar nd\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb tilla.<\/p>\n

S\u00eb pari<\/em>, niveli i borxhit publik \u00ebsht\u00eb i till\u00eb q\u00eb nuk i jep luksin qeveris\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb buxhetin e saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb stimuluar prodhimin vendas. Sipas FMN-s\u00eb dhe Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, niveli i borxhit publik t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb kufijt\u00eb 40%-50% t\u00eb Prodhimit t\u00eb Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb ai ka arritur pothuaj n\u00eb nivelin 65%.<\/p>\n

S\u00eb dyti<\/em>, marr\u00ebveshjet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb me Organizat\u00ebn Bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb Tregtis\u00eb (OBT), Bashkimin Europian (BE), etj. e kufizojn\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e qeveris\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb manovruar me tarifat doganore t\u00eb mallrave t\u00eb importuara apo me subvencionet e eksporteve.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjet monetare p\u00ebrfshihen ulja e norm\u00ebs baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit dhe nd\u00ebrhyrja e drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb e bank\u00ebs qendrore n\u00eb tregun e bonove t\u00eb thesarit. K\u00ebto nd\u00ebrhyrje kan\u00eb si rezultante rritjen e sasis\u00eb s\u00eb lek\u00ebve n\u00eb qarkullim dhe zhvler\u00ebsimin e lekut ndaj valutave kryesore. Nga ana e vet, nj\u00eb lek i zhvler\u00ebsuar ul koston e pun\u00ebs n\u00eb prodhimin vendas (p\u00ebr konsum apo eksport), meq\u00eb rrogat paguhen n\u00eb lek\u00eb. Pra, prodhimi vendas mund t\u00eb konkuroj\u00eb me at\u00eb t\u00eb huaj, si n\u00eb tregun vend\u00ebs dhe at\u00eb t\u00eb eksportit.<\/p>\n

Por nd\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb tilla monetare nuk jan\u00eb pa kosto. Zhvler\u00ebsimi i lekut ndaj valutave kryesore do t\u00eb rriste \u00e7mimet e mallrave q\u00eb sot vijn\u00eb nga importi. Dhe kjo do t\u00eb godiste r\u00ebnd\u00eb konsumator\u00ebt me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb pakta, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, derisa prodhimi vendas t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsoj\u00eb shum\u00eb nga mallrat e importit (Zoti e di p\u00ebr sa vjet), shum\u00eb shqiptar\u00ebve do t\u2019u duhet ta shtr\u00ebngojn\u00eb rripin fort. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, qeveris\u00eb do t\u2019i duhet t\u00eb shlyej\u00eb borxhin q\u00eb ka n\u00eb euro me lek\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb nj\u00eb kurs m\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebt shk\u00ebmbimi.<\/p>\n

Me pak fjal\u00eb, mund t\u00eb thuhet se, pavar\u00ebsisht n\u00ebse kryeminstri n\u00eb pritje Rama do t\u00eb jet\u00eb partizan i shkoll\u00ebs kejnsiane apo asaj fridmaniane, atij do t\u2019i duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb me FMN-n\u00eb, BB-n\u00eb, OBT-n\u00eb, BE-n\u00eb etj., n\u00eb lidhje me nd\u00ebrhyrjet fiskale, dhe nga ana tjet\u00ebr, me shumic\u00ebn e konsumator\u00ebve shqiptar\u00eb dhe kreditor\u00ebt e huaj, n\u00eb lidhje me nd\u00ebrhyrjet monetare\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga Eduard Zaloshnja, 14 korrik 2013 N\u00eb mendimin ekonomik post-marksist, kan\u00eb konkuruar dy shkolla t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta rreth rolit t\u00eb shtetit n\u00eb zbutjen e cikleve t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb tregut \u2013 ajo fiskale dhe ajo monetare. Nobelisti John Maynard Keynes ishte themeluesi i shkoll\u00ebs s\u00eb mendimit ekonomik q\u00eb i sheh politikat fiskale si instrumentin kryesor t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjes […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nShila dhe Karibda e Ram\u00ebs - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Shila dhe Karibda e Ram\u00ebs - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nga Eduard Zaloshnja, 14 korrik 2013 N\u00eb mendimin ekonomik post-marksist, kan\u00eb konkuruar dy shkolla t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta rreth rolit t\u00eb shtetit n\u00eb zbutjen e cikleve t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb tregut \u2013 ajo fiskale dhe ajo monetare. Nobelisti John Maynard Keynes ishte themeluesi i shkoll\u00ebs s\u00eb mendimit ekonomik q\u00eb i sheh politikat fiskale si instrumentin kryesor t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjes […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-07-14T22:38:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/www.fjala.info\/2013\/edi_rama_duke_folur.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/#\/schema\/person\/3aa1163ef05469c496fc94e77611ada2\"},\"headline\":\"Shila dhe Karibda e Ram\u00ebs\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-07-14T22:38:35+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-07-14T22:38:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/\"},\"wordCount\":1469,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/www.fjala.info\/2013\/edi_rama_duke_folur.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Artikuj\"],\"inLanguage\":\"sq-AL\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/shila-dhe-karibda-e-rames\/\",\"name\":\"Shila dhe Karibda e Ram\u00ebs - 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