{"id":10378,"date":"2011-09-09T09:20:26","date_gmt":"2011-09-09T08:20:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fjala.shkoder.net\/?p=10378"},"modified":"2011-09-09T09:20:26","modified_gmt":"2011-09-09T08:20:26","slug":"lufta-e-re-per-ballkanin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/lufta-e-re-per-ballkanin\/","title":{"rendered":"Lufta e re p\u00ebr Ballkanin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Besnik Pula<\/strong>, 08.09.2011<\/em><\/p>\n

N\u00eb ristrukturimin multipolar t\u00eb globit, \u00e7el\u00ebsi p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb jo q\u00eb t\u00eb anoj\u00eb nga nj\u00ebra apo tjetra fuqi, por q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga rivalitetet e tyre. Kjo ka qen\u00eb historikisht gjithmon\u00eb formula shp\u00ebtimtare e shteteve t\u00eb vogla<\/p>\n

Kriza globale financiare e vitit 2008 vuri n\u00eb l\u00ebvizje ndryshime gjeopolitike q\u00eb, sipas parashikimit t\u00eb shum\u00eb v\u00ebzhguesve, do t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb duke u thelluar dhe intensifikuar n\u00eb vitet q\u00eb do t\u00eb vijn\u00eb. N\u00eb k\u00ebto ndryshime nuk po luan rol vet\u00ebm ndikimi i shtuar kinez n\u00eb Azin\u00eb Juglindore dhe si garant i stabilitetit t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb globale n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, por edhe shprehjet e ndikimit t\u00eb fuqive t\u00eb reja regjionale si India, Brazili, Rusia dhe Turqia. K\u00ebto dy t\u00eb fundit po i ndiejm\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Ballkan, i cili duket se po shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb aren\u00eb t\u00eb re ndikimi politik dhe ekonomik t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre dy shteteve dhe Gjermanis\u00eb, sidomos me rolin gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb zbehur t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb regjion.<\/p>\n

SHBA-ja tradicionalisht nuk ka pasur interes t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkan, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00ebse e krahasojm\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb me rolin dhe ndikimin historik t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb regjionet si Lindja e Mesme, Amerika Latine apo Azia Juglindore. Edhe gjat\u00eb viteve 1990, kur Ballkani u kaplua nga luft\u00ebrat e p\u00ebrgjakshme dhe spastrimet etnike, SHBA-ja hezitoi t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhynte deri von\u00eb, duke preferuar q\u00eb me problemet e Ballkanit t\u00eb merren europian\u00ebt. Ishte vet\u00ebm d\u00ebshtimi i vazhduesh\u00ebm europian q\u00eb t\u2019i ndal\u00eb konfliktet, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht at\u00eb n\u00eb Bosnj\u00eb, q\u00eb b\u00ebri q\u00eb SHBA-ja t\u00eb marr\u00eb p\u00ebrsip\u00ebr p\u00ebrmbylljen e konfliktit n\u00eb Bosnj\u00eb dhe udh\u00ebheqjen e nd\u00ebrhyrjes s\u00eb NATO-s n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Q\u00eb nga kjo periudh\u00eb SHBA-ja ka synuar nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje graduale ushtarake dhe diplomatike nga Ballkani. Pas vitit 2001, kur Presidenti Bush shpalli t\u00eb ashtuquajtur\u00ebn \u201cluft\u00eb kund\u00ebr terrorizmit\u201d, dhe nisi luft\u00ebrat n\u00eb Afganistan dhe Irak, interesi strategjik amerikan n\u00eb Ballkan pak a shum\u00eb kishte marr\u00eb fund dhe regjioni iu la n\u00ebn menaxhim BE-s\u00eb. Po k\u00ebshtu, interesi i firmave amerikane n\u00eb Ballkan ishte dhe mbetet i vog\u00ebl, n\u00eb krahasim sidomos me vendet e Azis\u00eb Juglindore dhe Indis\u00eb ku ato kan\u00eb \u00e7uar pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb investimeve t\u00eb tyre t\u00eb jashtme, apo n\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme ku vazhdon interesimi p\u00ebr burimet e naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Interesi politik dhe ai ekonomik nganj\u00ebher\u00eb ec\u00ebn paralelisht, nganj\u00ebher\u00eb jo. P\u00ebrderisa interesi politik i SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkan ka shkuar drejt t\u00ebrheqjes, interesi i akter\u00ebve ekonomik\u00eb amerikan\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkan ka qen\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb i vog\u00ebl, gj\u00eb q\u00eb shihet edhe nga niveli relativisht i ul\u00ebt i investimeve dhe eksporteve t\u00eb firmave amerikane n\u00eb Ballkan. Kjo ka ndodhur p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr programeve t\u00eb shtetit amerikan, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb dh\u00ebnia e garancive p\u00ebr investime nga Banka Amerikane (shtet\u00ebrore) e Eksport-Importeve, q\u00eb kan\u00eb synuar nxitjen e investimeve amerikane n\u00eb regjion.<\/p>\n

Humbja e interesit amerikan n\u00eb Ballkan vet\u00ebm sa do t\u00eb intensifikohet me r\u00ebnien e ndikimit amerikan n\u00eb bot\u00eb si pasoj\u00eb e kriz\u00ebs ekonomike. Sistemi bot\u00ebror efektivisht ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb procesin q\u00eb para disa viteve sociologu Giovanni Arrighi e kishte quajtur \u201cbifurkim\u201d \u2013 nj\u00eb ndarje midis fuqis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore ushtarake q\u00eb mbetet e p\u00ebrqendruar n\u00eb SHBA, dhe fuqis\u00eb financiare q\u00eb tani po zhvendoset kryesisht n\u00eb Azin\u00eb Juglindore. Nj\u00eb proces i till\u00eb vet\u00ebm sa \u00ebsht\u00eb intensifikuar gjat\u00eb kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb kat\u00ebr viteve t\u00eb fundit, gjat\u00eb t\u00eb cilave ekonomit\u00eb e vendeve n\u00eb zhvillim kan\u00eb vazhduar t\u00eb rriten p\u00ebrderisa ekonomia amerikane dhe ajo europiane l\u00ebnguan dhe vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb l\u00ebngojn\u00eb nga probleme t\u00eb thella strukturore.<\/p>\n

Kjo situat\u00eb i ka kontribuar energjis\u00eb dhe hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs s\u00eb re q\u00eb shtetet n\u00eb zhvillim, sidomos fuqit\u00eb regjionale, kan\u00eb gjetur p\u00ebr t\u00eb shtrir\u00eb apo p\u00ebrforcuar m\u00eb tej influenc\u00ebn n\u00eb rrethinat e tyre gjeografike. Ballkani duket se po b\u00ebhet pre e nj\u00eb konkurrence t\u00eb till\u00eb t\u00eb re regjionale, si pasoj\u00eb jo vet\u00ebm e t\u00ebrheqjes s\u00eb interesimit amerikan, por edhe e mund\u00ebsive t\u00eb reja q\u00eb k\u00ebto shtete t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin fuqit\u00eb e tyre t\u00eb reja p\u00ebr t\u00eb shtrir\u00eb ndikimin n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb zon\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb e dukshme se n\u00eb sistemin bot\u00ebror kapitalist, fuqia financiare po b\u00ebhet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuese e prestigjit dhe ndikimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb shteti sesa fuqia ushtarake.<\/p>\n

Sot, p\u00ebrpjekja kryesore gjeopolitike p\u00ebr Ballkanin po b\u00ebhet nga Gjermania, e cila synon q\u00eb shtetet e Ballkanit t\u2019i fus\u00eb apo mbaj\u00eb n\u00eb sfer\u00ebn europiane t\u00eb ndikimit, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht p\u00ebrmes p\u00ebrfshirjes s\u00eb tyre n\u00eb BE. Ky rol i Gjermanis\u00eb mund\u00ebsohet sot nga fuqia financiare e k\u00ebtij vendi, e cila po e mban n\u00eb jet\u00eb euron p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb thell\u00eb fiskale q\u00eb ka p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb periferin\u00eb e Eurozon\u00ebs. Turneu i Kancelares gjermane, Angela Merkel, dhe sidomos vizita e saj n\u00eb Serbi, ishte pjes\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr\u00e7im i mesazhit p\u00ebr vendet e t\u00eb ashtuquajturit Ballkan Per\u00ebndimor q\u00eb t\u00eb disiplinohen n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjet e tyre p\u00ebr an\u00ebtar\u00ebsim n\u00eb BE, por, n\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, nj\u00eb mesazh i qart\u00eb se Ballkani (dhe sidomos Serbia), \u00ebsht\u00eb pjes\u00eb e sfer\u00ebs s\u00eb interesit gjerman.<\/p>\n

Ndikimi gjerman realizohet si drejtp\u00ebrdrejt (p\u00ebrmes ndihmave ekonomike direkte), ashtu edhe t\u00ebrthorazi, p\u00ebrmes investimeve t\u00eb firmave gjermane q\u00eb prej koh\u00ebsh synojn\u00eb ta shtrijn\u00eb ndikimin e tyre n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Qendrore. Instrumenti kryesor politik gjerman \u00ebsht\u00eb BE-ja, meq\u00eb pik\u00ebpamja gjermane ka qen\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb se BE-ja p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb arkitektur\u00eb politike, ekonomike dhe t\u00eb siguris\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e favorshme p\u00ebr interesat afatgjata gjermane.<\/p>\n

Rivali i Gjermanis\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb proces \u00ebsht\u00eb padyshim Rusia. Rusia jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb ka synuar prej koh\u00ebsh rolin e \u201cprotektorit\u201d nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb, por ka synuar t\u00eb avancoj\u00eb n\u00eb Serbi interesat ekonomike, sidomos ato n\u00eb fush\u00ebn energjis\u00eb, strategji kjo q\u00eb i ka mund\u00ebsuar prej koh\u00ebsh Rusis\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb n\u00ebn kthetrat e saj politike Republikat ish-Sovjetike. Ngjash\u00ebm, p\u00ebrpjekja ruse p\u00ebr ringjalljen e projektit sovjetik nga vitet 1980 p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtimin e nj\u00eb termocentrali b\u00ebrthamor 2000-megavat\u00ebsh n\u00eb Bullgari ka krijuar nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb thell\u00eb politik midis Mosk\u00ebs dhe Sofjes, por \u00ebsht\u00eb shenj\u00eb e p\u00ebrpjekjeve ruse p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur interesat dhe ndikimin edhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend an\u00ebtar t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb si Bullgaria.<\/p>\n

\u201cLufta\u201d p\u00ebr Serbin\u00eb duket se nuk ishte e suksesshme, meq\u00eb Gjermania n\u00eb vitet e fundit arriti t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb partnerin kryesor tregtar t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb nga investitor\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e Serbis\u00eb. Rusia megjithat\u00eb nuk ka hequr dor\u00eb nga tendenca p\u00ebr t\u00eb shtrir\u00eb ndikimin n\u00eb Ballkan, \u00e7ka d\u00ebshmon edhe nisma e re ruse p\u00ebr \u201cluft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr trafikimit t\u00eb drog\u00ebs\u201d q\u00eb Rusia n\u00ebnshkroi me Serbin\u00eb dhe Maqedonin\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa propozon ta n\u00ebnshkruaj\u00eb edhe me Malin e Zi dhe Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb parandaluar qarkullimin e heroin\u00ebs afgane q\u00eb, sipas autoriteteve ruse, arrin n\u00eb Europ\u00eb p\u00ebrmes Kosov\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Fuqia tjet\u00ebr regjionale q\u00eb po synon t\u00eb zgjeroj\u00eb ndikimin n\u00eb Ballkan \u00ebsht\u00eb Turqia. Koncepti i ministrit t\u00eb Jasht\u00ebm turk, Ahmet Davutoglu, p\u00ebr t\u00eb ashtuquajturin \u201cneootomaniz\u00ebm\u201d dhe shtrirje t\u00eb ndikimit turk n\u00eb zonat e ish-perandoris\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb i njohur p\u00ebr shum\u00eb kosovar\u00eb. Paradoksalisht, p\u00ebrderisa rivaliteti gjermano-rus lidhet kryesisht me Serbin\u00eb (si vend me r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi strategjike p\u00ebr Ballkanin), Turqia ka gjetur aleatin kryesor te Kosova. (Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb tep\u00ebr shum\u00eb n\u00ebn sfer\u00ebn e ndikimit italian q\u00eb t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb lidhje t\u00eb ngushta politike dhe ekonomike me Turqin\u00eb.) P\u00ebr arsye t\u00eb ndryshme politike dhe historike, Turqia ka pak shanse q\u00eb t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb ndonj\u00eb ndikim n\u00eb Serbi, megjith\u00ebse realitetet ekonomike t\u00eb bot\u00ebs s\u00eb sotme nuk l\u00ebn\u00eb asnj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrjashtuar apriori. Por nj\u00eb situat\u00eb e till\u00eb po e krijon nj\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb pafavorshme, sidomos p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Serbia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb avantazh pik\u00ebrisht sepse \u00ebsht\u00eb jasht\u00eb BE-s\u00eb. Ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu n\u00eb avantazh sepse mbetet shtet strategjik n\u00eb regjion, si n\u00eb kuptimin ushtarak, ashtu dhe politik dhe ekonomik. Kjo e b\u00ebn Serbin\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme, dhe po aq sa Serbia mund t\u2019i n\u00ebnshtrohet presionit gjerman, ajo po aq mund t\u2019i kund\u00ebrvihet k\u00ebtij presioni p\u00ebrmes shfryt\u00ebzimit t\u00eb interesave ruse. Faktori q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb vendimtar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb moment \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb elita aktuale politike n\u00eb Serbi megjithat\u00eb sheh t\u00eb ardhmen e Serbis\u00eb n\u00eb BE, dhe do ta shihte si \u00e7mim tep\u00ebr t\u00eb lart\u00eb heqjen dor\u00eb nga an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimi n\u00eb BE p\u00ebr ndonj\u00eb afrim t\u00eb ri me Rusin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Kosova gjendet n\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb tjet\u00ebr. Interesi europian, n\u00eb form\u00ebn e ICO-s, EULEX-it dhe mekanizmave t\u00eb tjer\u00eb multilateral, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrkthyer asnj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb interes t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb ekonomik dhe politik. Shtetet europiane jan\u00eb kryesisht t\u00eb interesuara q\u00eb Kosova t\u00eb mos degjeneroj\u00eb, duke u shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb vat\u00ebr t\u00eb krimit transnacional, terrorizmit, korrupsionit dhe emigracionit. Edhe p\u00ebrfshirja eventuale e Kosov\u00ebs n\u00eb BE shihet dhe justifikohet pothuajse krejt\u00ebsisht n\u00eb k\u00ebta terma. Thirrja ruse p\u00ebr organizim t\u00eb policive ballkanike kund\u00ebr tregtimit t\u00eb heroin\u00ebs p\u00ebrmes Kosov\u00ebs n\u00eb Europ\u00eb (duke p\u00ebrjashtuar nga kjo marr\u00ebveshje vet\u00eb autoritetet e Kosov\u00ebs) mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb pjes\u00eb e p\u00ebrpjekjeve p\u00ebr nj\u00eb p\u00ebrafrim me BE-n\u00eb duke prekur nj\u00eb pik\u00eb t\u00eb ndjeshme t\u00eb siguris\u00eb europiane \u2013 tek e fundit, pse i dhemb Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr heroin\u00ebn q\u00eb po tregtohet n\u00eb Europ\u00eb?<\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rrafsh, n\u00eb kontekstin e nj\u00eb BE-je t\u00eb dob\u00ebt dhe nj\u00eb Rusie q\u00eb synon shtrirje t\u00eb ndikimit n\u00eb rajon, forcimi i lidhjeve politike me Turqin\u00eb dhe thirrja ritualistike n\u00eb miq\u00ebsin\u00eb me SHBA-n\u00eb, q\u00eb tashm\u00eb ka marr\u00eb p\u00ebrmasa m\u00eb shum\u00eb simbolike se sa reale (p\u00ebrjashtuar k\u00ebtu ndikimin personal t\u00eb ambasadorit Christopher Dell te qeveria aktuale), n\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb p\u00ebrafrimit sidomos me interesat gjermane, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i rreziksh\u00ebm dhe i d\u00ebmsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr interesat afatgjata t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb ristrukturim multipolar t\u00eb globit, \u00e7el\u00ebsi p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb jo q\u00eb t\u00eb anoj\u00eb nga nj\u00ebra apo tjetra fuqi, por q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga rivalitetet e tyre. Kjo ka qen\u00eb historikisht gjithmon\u00eb formula shp\u00ebtimtare e shteteve t\u00eb vogla.<\/p>\n

(Autori \u00ebsht\u00eb profesor i sociologjis\u00eb n\u00eb Binghamton University, SHBA, dhe kolumnist i rregullt i \u201cKoh\u00ebs Ditore\u201d. Q\u00ebndrimet e shprehura jan\u00eb personale<\/em>.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Besnik Pula, 08.09.2011 N\u00eb ristrukturimin multipolar t\u00eb globit, \u00e7el\u00ebsi p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb jo q\u00eb t\u00eb anoj\u00eb nga nj\u00ebra apo tjetra fuqi, por q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga rivalitetet e tyre. Kjo ka qen\u00eb historikisht gjithmon\u00eb formula shp\u00ebtimtare e shteteve t\u00eb vogla Kriza globale financiare e vitit 2008 vuri n\u00eb l\u00ebvizje ndryshime gjeopolitike q\u00eb, sipas parashikimit t\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nLufta e re p\u00ebr Ballkanin - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fjala.info\/2009-2015\/lufta-e-re-per-ballkanin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lufta e re p\u00ebr Ballkanin - FjALA e LIR\u00cb - Arkivi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Besnik Pula, 08.09.2011 N\u00eb ristrukturimin multipolar t\u00eb globit, \u00e7el\u00ebsi p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb jo q\u00eb t\u00eb anoj\u00eb nga nj\u00ebra apo tjetra fuqi, por q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga rivalitetet e tyre. 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